The 2011 Cleveland Indians were able to finish in second place in the weak American League Central Division. It seems the Indians overachieved a bit last season given the amount of time some of their players missed. Only Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera played in more than 114 games. The Indians were not too active in the offseason but added more than it lost by taking advantage of certain situations and being savvy. Cleveland should be a better team in 2012 and could be further helped if players are healthier.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The Indians definitely have some nice pieces in their starting lineup. Catcher Carlos Santana, coming into his second full season, has already shown he is one of the most potent offensive forces at the position; Santana can establish himself this season as the best hitting catcher in baseball if he progresses. Cleveland’s shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is coming off the best season of his career. In Cabrera’s first four seasons he had 1,610 plate appearances and hit 18 home runs.  Last season, his fifth, he hit 25 home runs in 667 plate appearances; it was also the first season in which he was able to stay in the lineup. 2012 will be a telling year for Cabrera. Was last season a peak, aberration year or will he nearly be as productive (*). Shin-Soo Choo’s 2012 season will be one of the most interesting to follow.. Choo’s 2009 and 2010 seasons were among the best all around by an outfielder and were underrated. The right fielder was looking like a 20 HR/20 SB, .300 average, nearly .400 OBP player. Then 2011 came. Choo went on the disabled list three times during the season and had an off-the-field problem, being arrested for a DUI in May. He played in only 85 games and his production dipped in every category. In 2012 he will definitely be looking to turn things around and return to ’09-’10 form. One of the savvy moves the front office made in the offseason was signing 1B Casey Kotchman to a 1-year, $3 million contract. Kotchman is far from an elite first basemen but he is a bargain at that price. Former first round pick Lonnie Chisenhall may get a chance to prove himself at third base this season. If he is developed from last season, that would clearly be a plus. The Indians weren’t able to establish stability in their lineup last season. This season is not off to a great start as Grady Sizemore is already set to miss two-three months with back surgery. A few years ago Sizemore was one of the game’s best young stars, but hasn’t been able to sustain health for some time (**). The Indians have legitimate players but have several questions marks surrounding them.

(*) Given the way his numbers have unfolded I would be surprised if he hit 20 or more home runs this season. If Cabrera is able to hold down shortstop and put up quality offensive numbers, that would be a plus for Cleveland. 

(**) Sizemore just can’t seem to catch a break with his health and it’s really too bad. He is super talented and an exciting player to watch when he’s on the field. Hopefully things will turn around for him.

The starting rotation has a lot of potential. At the top are Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez. Masterson had a breakout year in 2011, clearly the best of his three full seasons in the Major Leagues. With another season with similar results, he may establish himself as one of the better pitchers in baseball. Jimenez was traded during the season from Colorado. After his huge 2010 season, he took a step back. The right-hander was still a good pitcher though. The top of the rotation is setup nicely with Masterson and Jimenez. The Indians acquired Derek Lowe from the Braves in the offseason (***). Lowe posted a 9-17 record with a 5.05 ERA but had better advanced numbers. He will be 39 years old this season and can still help a team out; Lowe will be seeking his 11th consecutive season with 30+ starts. This was a good move by the Indians to bolster their rotation. The projected rotation also features command/control reliant Josh Tomlin who missed the last month of the season with an elbow injury. If Tomlin is on top of his craft he could end up being an average big league starter. Kevin Slowey was acquired from the Rockies in an offseason deal. Colorado will be paying $1.25 million of his $2.75 million deal in 2012. Cleveland gets a pitcher that in the past has been decent at times for $1.50 million. That’s a nice gamble by Cleveland. Carlos Carrasco will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Robert Hernandez Heredia, AKA Fausto Carmona, is a complete unknown at this point because of his being arrested on identity fraud. For the time being he is not in the picture.

(***) The Braves are paying $10 million of Lowe’s $15 million contract. 

The Indians bullpen is not set in stone in the back end. Closer Chris Perez may be out for the start of the season with a strained oblique. That opens the door for Vinnie Pestano to take the role for at least a brief period. Pestano was great in 2011. Cleveland returns six pitches that made at least 40 appearances last season. The bullpen is not great but has good arms like Pestano and Joe Smith.

The Cleveland Indians have talent, but also have several question marks. Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Justin Masterson took big steps last season but will they back it up? Can Shin-Soo Choo rebound from a very poor season? How much will Derek Lowe deliver at the age of 39? Will Chris Perez be effective this season if/when he returns from injury? Will the team get anything out of Grady Sizemore? With these questions Cleveland’s season could go a number of ways.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Casey Kotchman (1B) – free agent
• Derek Lowe (RHP) – trade with Atlanta Braves
• Kevin Slowey (RHP) – trade with Colorado Rockies
• Aaron Cunningham (OF) – trade with San Diego Padres
• Dan Wheeler (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Jim Thome (DH/1B) – signed with Philadelphia Phillies
• Kosuke Fukudome (OF) – signed with Chicago White Sox
• Chad Durbin (RHP) – signed with Washington Nationals
• Travis Buck (OF) – signed with Houston Astros
• Luis Valbuena (IF/OF) – trade with Toronto Blue Jays
• Josh Judy (RHP) – claimed by Cincinnati Reds
• Mitch Talbot (RHP) – signed with Samsung (Korea)

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Michael Brantley – CF

2. Asdrubal Cabrera – SS

3. Shin-Soo Choo – RF

4. Carlos Santana – C

5. Travis Hafner – DH

6. Casey Kotchman – 1B

7. Shelley Duncan – LF

8. Lonnie Chisenhall – 3B

9. Jason Kipnis – 2B

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Justin Masterson – RH

2. Ubaldo Jimenez – RH

3. Derek Lowe – RH

4. Josh Tomlin – RH

5. Kevin Slowey – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Vinnie Pestano – RH
• Joe Smith – RH
• Tony Sipp – LH
• Rafael Perez – LH
• Dan Wheeler – RH
• Nick Hagadone – LH
• Frank Herrmann – RH

Projected Bench:

• Lou Marson – C
• Jason Donald – IF
• Jack Hannahan – CIF
• Aaron Cunningham – OF

Projected Disabled List (Start of the season):

• Grady Sizemore – OF
• Chris Perez – RHP
• Carlos Carrasco – RHP

Variables:

• Back it up? – Some Indians players, most notably Santana, Cabrera, and Masterson had the best years of their career. They will each look to build on 2011.
• Choo’s rebound – Shin-Soo Choo will look to reestablish himself as one of the best all around outfielders in the game after a forgettable season.
• Lonnie Chisenhall – Will he get the opportunities and will he take advantage?
• Injuries – Sizemore is already out for a couple months at least and cannot be counted on at all this season. Chris Perez is injured and hopes to make it back in time for the start of the season.
• Age of Lowe – Derek Lowe is bound to slow down considerably in the near future.

Fantasy Implications:

• Carlos Santana is ranked as one of the top two catchers in fantasy baseball according to Yahoo! and ESPN pre-draft rankings. He is slated as a fifth or sixth round pick as well. Santana has big upside and should post big power numbers. While he is expected to be great he has only done it for one year. For me a fifth or sixth rounder is a little too risky given Santana’s resume. Catcher is a shallow position; even if he takes a step back, it would be unlikely he would not still put up power numbers. If I want one of the top fantasy catchers I’m going to wait a couple rounds for another top five player at the position.
• Last season, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera put up workable numbers across the board including nice contributions in the home run and stolen base categories. He’s a top seven shortstop this season according to pre-draft rankings. I expect his numbers to go down from last season so someone else will probably end up taking him.
• After being a top 10 outfielder in recent years Shin-Soo Choo takes a step back into borderline top 20 outfielder territory. I don’t think he will quite be his 2010 self but I expect his numbers to be closer to that year than 2011.
• Starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez seems to be undervalued according to pre-draft rankings where he is around 30th among starting pitchers. Jimenez struggled at times last season. He will have a very good strikeout total while his ERA and WHIP should be improved. Starting pitching is deep through the first 30-40 and Jimenez is a good example of the value you can get if you wait on pitching a little.
• Justin Masterson had a better real life season than fantasy season last year. That will probably continue in 2012. He should put up decent numbers but don’t expect great things.
• Chris Perez, assuming he returns to the closer job, may be a little risky. The injury is a concern obviously, but last season Perez had a poor strikeout rate and his ERA was a bit on the high side for a late inning pitcher. Vinnie Pestano is interesting as a player that could pick up saves at some point during the season.
• Second basemen Jason Kipnis is not ranked as a starter in fantasy but he’ll have enough value to be drafted. He could go in the high teens in home runs and stolen bases.