The Chicago White Sox are going through a rebuilding period. The organization is cutting its payroll and at the same time is trying to build its poor farm system. In the offseason the team lost Mark Buehrle, Carlos Quentin and Sergio Santos among others. Kosuke Fukudome is the only addition expected to make any sort of impact in 2012 and he’s slated for reserve outfielder duty. The club dropped its payroll by over $20 million. The result of the White Sox moves will be a weaker team and a lower finish in the standings. Since realignment in 1994 Chicago has never finished in last place in the American League Central and has only finished in 4th place one time. It wouldn’t be a surprise if this team ended up in 4th or even last place this season.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

I wonder how much more the White Sox payroll would have lowered if the team could move three of its highest paid players – Jake Peavy, Adam Dunn or Alex Rios. As it stands those players are untradeable unless the White Sox paid upwards of 80% of  their remaining deals. Peavy has battled injuries throughout his time with the White Sox making only 17 and 18 starts in his two full years with the organization. He is owed $17 million in 2012 and will receive a $4 million buyout for the last year of his deal. The White Sox could potentially move him at the trade deadline (paying most of his salary) assuming he is healthy and effective through July. I don’t know what happened to Adam Dunn, but he seemed to fall off a cliff last season. Dunn was on the very short list for worst players in Major League Baseball last season. He finished the season .159/.292/.277 (AVG/OBP/SLG) (*). After seven straight seasons of hitting at least 38 home runs, Dunn mustered 11 in 496 plate appearances. He also struck out in a staggering 36% of his plate appearances (**). That means more than every third time he came to the plate he struck out. This is where it gets ugly(ier). That was only the first year of Dunn’s four-year contract with the club. He is still under contract for 3-years, $44 million. Then there’s Alex Rios who posted a .227/.265/.348. Rios was brutal offensively last season. He is set to make $37 million over the next three seasons before receiving a $1 million buyout in 2015. What this all adds up to is Peavy, Dunn, and Rios making up $43 million of the White Sox estimated $105 million payroll. That’s essentially 41% of the payroll to three players that may deliver next to nothing this season. Ouch.

(*) Wow!

(**) No, really. Wow!

The White Sox are not without talented position players. First basemen Paul Konerko is still chugging along at the age of 36 and is coming off consecutive monster offensive seasons. Alexei Ramirez is one of the better players at his position (shortstop) and puts up decent numbers offensively. Center fielder Alejandro De Aza got an opportunity last season and made the most of it with a .920 OPS. There’s virtually no way he can sustain that production but he should still be productive. Left fielder Dayan Viciedo has a chance to put up good numbers as well. But really where the White Sox position players/offense will be put to the test is with the aforementioned Adam Dunn and Alex Rios along with second basemen Gordon Beckham. Dunn’s and Rios’ struggles were chronicled earlier; their production can’t get much worse than it was in 2011. But Beckham, for another year, is one of the big keys for the White Sox. Coming off back-to-back poor years, it’s time to wonder if this is what Beckham is. Beckham, the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, only has so many more chances to show he will be an even average everyday starter in the Major Leagues. Konerko is the big offensive weapon for Chicago. The team has a mix of players ranging from inexperienced but somewhat promising to veterans looking to rebound (***).

(***) Quick note: The White Sox projected 2, 4, and 5 hitters (Pierzynski, Konerko, and Dunn) have 11 combined stolen bases over the last four seasons. Just want to point that out. This is a station-to-station team.

Last year when the White Sox were healthy in the starting rotation they had five pitchers that were above average for the season. This season the team is without former mainstay Mark Buehrle. Former first round pick Chris Sale takes over the spot vacated by Buehrle as he attempts to transition from the bullpen. Sale has the skill set to end up being a solid starting pitcher. At the top of the rotation are John Danks (****) and Gavin Floyd who have both put up good numbers over the past four seasons. Peavy figures in at the number three spot in the rotation. A healthy Peavy would really help. The last member of the rotation is Phillip Humber who came on last season and pitched effectively. I expect Humber will have a hard time matching last season’s success as some of his numbers show he had some fortunate results last season. The White Sox rotation should be solid but is not without its unknowns whether they be adjustments, trades, injures, or building on past performance.

(****) The White Sox and Danks agreed to a 5-year, $65 million contract in the offseason. This seems to work against the White Sox current trend (lowering payroll). Well, the White Sox still may be moving in that direction even with the Danks deal because his base salary is only $500,000 with a $7.5 million signing bonus paid over the season. Chicago still could be setup to move Danks this season but if they keep him, they will owe him $14.25 million per season from 2013-2016. Danks has a full no trade clause this season so he gets protection if the White Sox plan a move. It’s really a bizarre situation.

The closer job will probably come down to lefty Matt Thornton and rookie Addison Reed. Thornton got off to a rough start last season before settling down and having a nice rest of the season. If Reed doesn’t get the closer’s job he will likely be groomed for the role for the future. Jesse Crain will likely be the primary setup option; he has been a solid reliever over the past few years. Will Ohman will serve as the lefty specialist. Two more middle relief slots and the long relief slot will be competed for over Spring Training.

The White Sox cut payroll in 2012. The club lost a few key players from last year and did little to replace them with Major League talent – the big offseason acquisition is a fourth outfielder. So, the White Sox come back with the same team intact, sans players like Mark Buehrle, Carlos Quentin and Sergio Santos. That opens up more opportunities for other players to step up. It is difficult to see the White Sox having improved by the moves the organization made. The team can hold out hope that some players will rebound and others will step up. Realistically though, the White Sox should do what they can to keep costs down, acquire some prospects and build up the league’s worst farm system. The White Sox will finish the 2012 season looking up at multiple teams in the American League Central Division.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Kosuke Fukudome (OF) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Mark Buehrle (LHP) – signed with Miami Marlins
• Carlos Quentin (OF) – trade to San Diego Padres
• Sergio Santos (RHP) – trade with Toronto Blue Jays
• Juan Pierre (OF) – signed with Philadelphia Phillies
• Omar Vizquel (MIF) – signed with Toronto Blue Jays
• Jason Frasor (RHP) – trade with Toronto Blue Jays
• Terry Doyle (RHP) – Rule V Draft – Minnesota Twins
• Ramon Castro (C) – unsigned

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Alejandro De Aza – CF

2. A.J. Pierzynski – C

3. Alex Rios – RF

4. Paul Konerko – 1B

5. Adam Dunn – DH

6. Alexei Ramirez – SS

7. Dayan Viciedo – LF

8. Brent Morel – 3B

9. Gordon Beckham – 2B

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. John Danks – LH

2. Gavin Floyd – RH

3. Jake Peavy – RH

4. Philip Humber – RH

5. Chris Sale – LH

Projected Bullpen:

• Matt Thornton – LH
• Jesse Crain – RH
• Addison Reed – RH
• Wil Ohman – LH
• Dylan Axelrod – RH
• Zach Stewart – RH
• Jhan Marinez – RH

Projected Bench:

• Tyler Flowers – C
• Ozzie Martinez – IF
• Brent Lillebridge – IF/OF
• Kosuke Fukudome – OF

Variables:

• One year issue? – Dunn and Rios were two of the worst regulars in MLB last season. It would be difficult for them to be this bad again but both are also over the age of 30.
• Is this it? – Gordon Beckham is a player that really needs to step up in 2012.
• Konerko – He has been fantastic at the plate the last two seasons but is now 36. He is going to slow down at some point.
• Transition – Sale moves to the rotation. It will be an adjustment of some kind but how much will it effect his performance?
• Payroll – What is the direction of the White Sox? It seems like the organization wants to rebuild, but some of their moves (e.g. Danks’ contract) say otherwise (or potentially say otherwise).
• Closer – The closer situation could be fluid with Thornton, Reed, and Crain in the mix.

Fantasy Implications:

• First basemen Paul Konerko has the most value of any White Sox player. He essentially is the seventh ranked player at his position pre-draft after the big names are off the board – Cabrera, Pujols, Votto, Gonzalez, Fielder, Teixeira. Konerko is coming off back-to-back seasons of at least .300 AVG/30 HR/100 RBI. He is bound to slow down at some point, but when is obviously the question.
• The last two seasons second basemen Gordon Beckham was a player a lot of people expected to breakout. Now he is not even in the top 20 at the position and is expected to bat ninth in the White Sox lineup. He’s a player to keep an eye on but is completely unreliable until he proves it on the field.
• Shortstop Alexei Ramirez has become a pretty safe option at shortstop these days. His line will be somewhere in the .280/15 HR/80 R/70 RBI/9 SB area. That’s not great offensive production but it’s “startable.” If you wait on a shortstop, Ramirez will be there to put up safe/solid numbers. He has also missed only 10 games over the last two seasons.
• Alex Rios was brutal last year. That means he will be ranked low and many fantasy players won’t believe in him. You will probably be able to get him on the cheap. I’m not saying I am a big Rios supporter but he could deliver good value as 17 HR/17 SB is definitely a possibility. He hit third in the lineup in the White Sox first Spring Training game too.
• Chicago’s other two outfielders, Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo, are two potential sleepers. De Aza has some speed and Viciedo has some power.
• If you’re going to draft Adam Dunn this year you better be in a position where you can drop him at the first sign of trouble. He very well could bounce back and hit around 30 home runs but he is not someone to invest in. He also won’t hit for average and has zero speed.
• The White Sox don’t offer great fantasy options in the starting rotation. John Danks and Gavin Floyd are both more effective in actual games rather than fantasy. Peavy may be worth a flyer but clearly has big injury concerns. If you’re looking for upside, Chris Sale is a good bet.
• The White Sox closer situation is among the most fluid with three players, Thornton, Reed, and Crain in the mix. This is something to monitor up until you have your draft. The safe money is on Thornton.