The New York Mets as an organization have massive financial problems. Fred Wilpon, the Mets owner, was involved in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. There are currently lawsuits against the Wilpon family which has raised concerns that the family may not be able to support the team financially. The Mets’ payroll has decreased dramatically from a season ago. The payroll last season exceeded $140 million; this season it will probably be just over $90 million. A $90+ million Major League Baseball payroll is not necessarily cheap but it is a significant drop off for the organization. The decreased payroll coupled with improvements from the rest of the rest of the teams in the division will make 2012 a difficult year for the New York Mets. The organization faces an uncertain future.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The mid-season trade of outfielder Carlos Beltran and the off-season loss of shortstop Jose Reyes leaves the Mets without two of its best and most well-known players. Third basemen David Wright is one of the few remaining players from the Mets successful stretch five or so years ago. Wright is coming off a poor year in which he was limited to 102 games because of injury. He will be looking to bounce back to his former production (*). He won’t be the only Met looking for a healthier season. Of the players returning to the team, Jason Bay played the most games but only 123 (**). Two players the Mets will be looking at to have healthier and improved season are Daniel Murphy (2B) and Ike Davis (1B). Both players have shown in stretches to be good Major League hitters. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to think both players could breakout if healthy this season. The organization hasn’t gotten much out of Bay since signing him two seasons ago. Bay is due $16 million this season and will be looking to turn his tenure with the Mets around. The Mets have some good position players. If those players are healthier than last season and play to their capabilities the Mets offense could end up in the middle of the pack in runs scored.

(*) It’s early in Spring Training and Wright is not 100%. He is feeling discomfort in his rib cage. Wright and the Mets have to hoping this isn’t a sign of things to come.

(**) He appeared in the most games of the Mets returning players and still missed nearly a quarter of the season.

New York’s rotation could be boosted by the return of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana. The southpaw didn’t pitch at all in 2011 due to a shoulder injury. He is in the fifth year of a 6-year, $137.5 million deal. The Mets will be playing it safer than usual considering Santana’s contract. Santana’s health will be monitored extremely close throughout the season. This is a cross-your-fingers situation for New York. The four remaining starters, Jonathon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, and Dillon Gee, return from 2011. These four starters were all able to make at least 26 starts last season. None of them were great, but they were basically serviceable. Santana is the key. The remaining starters will look to stabilize the rotation with Niese as the breakout candidate. New York’s starting rotation is not dynamic but may not have a glaring hole either.

The back of the Mets bullpen was rebuilt over the offseason. New York signed Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch who were both with Toronto last season and also acquired Ramon Ramirez in a trade with San Francisco. Frank Francisco will likely be the team’s closer this season while Rauch and Ramirez will be the principle setup men. Hard throwers Bobby Parnell and Manny Acosta will likely fill in middle reliever roles. Tim Byrdak will be the lefty specialist. The Mets bullpen should be better than it was last season.

The New York Mets are in challenging times. The organization does not have as many resources at its disposal as it used to. It doesn’t help that at the same time as the Mets are experiencing misfortune the rest of the division is either in contention or headed there. New York is truly the only organization in the NL East that is clearly headed in the wrong direction. General Manager Sandy Alderson has proven in the past to put together good teams without the most resources. The team is going to struggle but Alderson may be able to navigate the problems the organization faces. In 2012 the Mets have to be hoping for better fortunes in the health department, progression from some of the younger players on the roster and rebounds from some veterans. Even if the Mets get those things the team still faces an uphill battle.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Andres Torres (OF) – trade with San Francisco Giants
• Ronny Cedeno (IF) – free agent
• Ramon Ramirez (RHP) – trade with San Francisco Giants
• Frank Francisco (RHP) – free agent
• Jon Rauch (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Jose Reyes (SS) – signed with Miami Marlins
• Angel Pagan (OF) – trade with San Francisco Giants
• Chris Capuano (LHP) – signed with Los Angeles Dodgers
• Willie Harris (IF/OF) – signed with Cincinnati Reds
• Ronny Paulino (C) – signed with Baltimore Orioles
• Jason Isringhausen (RHP) – signed Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Nick Evans (IF/OF) – signed with Pittsburgh Pirates
• Chris Young (RHP) – unsigned
• Jason Pridie (OF) – signed with Oakland Athletics

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Andres Torres – CF

2. Daniel Murphy – 2B

3. David Wright – 3B

4. Ike Davis – 1B

5. Jason Bay – LF

6. Lucas Duda – RF

7. Josh Thole – C

8. Ruben Tejada – SS

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Johan Santana – LH

2. R.A. Dickey – RH

3. Jonathon Niese – LH

4. Mike Pelfrey – RH

5. Dillon Gee – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Frank Francisco – RH
• Jon Rauch – RH
• Ramon Ramirez – RH
• Tim Byrdak – LH
• Bobby Parnell – RH
• Manny Acosta – RH
• D.J. Carrasco – RH

Projected Bench:

• Mike Nickeas – C
• Zach Lutz – CIF
• Justin Turner – IF
• Ronny Cedeno – IF
• Scott Hairston – OF

Variables:

• Health – It’s a concern for every team, but the Mets had lots of injuries last season including players the team really relies on such as Wright, Santana, Murphy, and Davis.
• Rebound – Several players whether it be injury or performance will be looking to rebound from less than good years. Wright and Jason Bay instantly come to mind.
• Financial flexibility – The Mets don’t have much to work with and if anything will probably shed payroll. The organization won’t be able to move its two monster contracts, Santana (owed a minimum of $55 million through 2013) or Bay (owed a minimum of $35 million through 2013) this season. This could further point to a trade involving Wright.
• Break out – Daniel Murphy, Ike Davis, and Jonathon Niese are all potential breakout players for the Mets this season.
• Santana – Can’t rely on him much this season but if he’s healthy he should be the best pitcher on the staff.
• Closer – Francisco will likely be given the job but if he loses it, it won’t be the first time that will have happened to him.

Fantasy Implications:

• David Wright is the most valuable fantasy player on the New York Mets roster. He’s a career .300 hitter that helps in all the counting stats (HR, RBI, R, SB). Players that have the potential to hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases have added value. But Wright is coming off his worst Major League season, a year in which he missed 60 games and wasn’t all that productive when he was in the lineup. In the past Wright was a clear first or second round pick and one of the first few third basemen selected. In 2012, he’ll likely drop to the third round and is more of a top five player at his position.
• First basemen Ike Davis isn’t slated as a starter in fantasy baseball but he has a lot of upside as a player ranked outside the top 20 at the position. It wouldn’t be a shock of Davis comes back from injury and at least serves as a good utility player.
• An interesting player will be Daniel Murphy who holds 1B, 2B, and 3B eligibility. Murphy should hit for a high average and have an decent run total. Where his fantasy value drops is in home runs and stolen bases where he may not reach double figures. Murhpy brings more to the real game than fantasy.
• Outfielders Lucas Duda and Jason Bay don’t have a lot of value but may end up on some teams. They are more wait-and-see fantasy players.
• The Mets don’t have stellar fantasy starting pitchers. The two most interesting players are Johan Santana and Jonathon Niese. Santana is interesting because of past performance and may be worth taking a chance on. If he doesn’t have it, I don’t think you will have invested a lot in him. Niese could have a breakout season, but it may not be seen in fantasy stats – he usually has a high WHIP and his win total may not be high.
• Frank Francisco was signed in the offseason to close. He’s not a sure thing to keep his job for the entire season and is ranked around 30th among relief pitchers. Like any pitcher in a position to collect saves, he has value.