The 2011 Kansas City Royals finished fourth in the AL Central and extended the franchise’s playoff drought to 26 (*). Since Major League Baseball last realigned in the 1994 season, Kansas City has one finish above third place in the division. During that 18 year stretch, the club has finished above .500 only twice. Safe to say the Royals history, especially over the past 25 years, is not all that illustrious. The Royals fortunes seem to be making a turn for the better though. The team has several promising young players to build around and may be on the way toward contending for the division.

(*) The last time the franchise made the playoffs was in 1985; the Royals won the World Series that year.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

Last season the Kansas City Royals really began their youth movement by promoting highly touted prospects, first basemen Eric Hosmer and third basemen Mike Moustakas. Hosmer produced essentially from the get go but Moustakas had mixed returns (**). The organization is banking on these two players to be mainstays. In 2012, the duo will likely find itself batting somewhere in the middle of the order. The Royals are young in the field. Left fielder Alex Gordon and right fielder Jeff Francoeur are the two oldest players projected in the starting lineup at the age of 28. Gordon, the former 2nd overall draft pick, broke out in 2011 and had by far the best season of his five year career in the majors. Francoeur had his best year since 2007. The average age of Kansas City’s starting lineup is 25.5 and averages exactly three years of major league experience; four of the nine projected starters made their major league debut in 2011. KC finished the season 10th in runs scored. If some of the Royals young players progress as expected, the offense may improve on last season’s production (***). While the starting lineup is young it is talented in several areas. This shouldn’t be a problem area for the 2012 Royals.

(**) It’s still way too early to make any kind of proclamation on either player but both were selected in the top three overall in the draft. Five of the first six batters in the projected lineup were first-round picks. The sixth player, Johnny Giavotella, was a second-round pick.

(***) The Royals offense could very well regress given that Gordon, Francoeur, and shortstop Alcides Escobar had their best offensive seasons either ever or for some time.

The problem for Kansas City will (likely) be its starting rotation which lacks big-time players. Former first overall pick Luke Hochevar will probably be the team’s Opening Day starter. Hochevar has struggled so far in his career but 2011 was his best season as he started the most games in his career, lowered his walk rate and ERA; he also pitched better as the season wore on. With the strides the offense made coupled with the struggles in the rotation, management seem to think it necessary to trade for pitching as the Royals dealt CF Melky Cabrera to the San Francisco Giants for southpaw Jonathan Sanchez who is coming off a down year. Sanchez has been mostly good when healthy and instantly volts towards the top of the Royals staff. Veteran left-hander Bruce Chen had perhaps the best season of his career and parlayed it into a two-year, $9 million deal. Even though 2011 was potentially Chen’s best year, it still was not all that great. In related news, Chen turns 35 during the season. The lone all-star from the team last season, Aaron Crow, will at the very least get a look at the rotation during Spring Training; the former first-rounder worked out of the bullpen last year. Felipe Paulino projects as a back-end starter for the team in 2012. Last season the Royals were 26th of 30 in runs allowed. Unless something unexpected happens in this group it would be a surprise if that ranking improved dramatically this season. This is where some of the prospects Kansas City has lined up could help.

At (or near) the top of the bullpen are two pitchers looking to bounce back from poor years. Closer Joakim Soria had the worst season of his five-year career and lost his job for a period. The usually dominant Soria posted career worsts across the board. The club was not too active during the offseason but did bring in former Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton who pitched in only 14 games last season limited to injury. Broxton, if healthy, will fill a setup role and if he returns to form could be in line to close if Soria falters. The rest of the bullpen, with the exception of lefty-specialist Jose Mijares, is young and has little experience as none have more than two years in the major leagues. Kansas City’s bullpen should fare well, especially if Soria and Broxton are able to perform to their standards.

The Kansas City Royals is an organization that is looking a year or two down the line for its time to strike. It’s not quite there yet but has the young players in the majors and minors to keep the fans and the team looking forward for what’s to come. The starting lineup is well on its way and needs some seasoning. The Royals do have big problems in the rotation which is where the team will have to improve over the next couple years in order to make the leap and turn the tide of Royals history. If the Royals young players live up to their billing the team may make those couple moves to get them over the hump. A year or two down the road, the Royals may be in the hunt in the AL Central, but they’re probably not ready this year.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Jonathan Sanchez (LHP) – trade with San Francisco Giants
• Jonathan Broxton (RHP) – free agent
• Yuniesky Betancourt (IF) – free agent
• Jose Mijares (LHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Melkey Cabrera (OF) – traded to San Francisco Giants
• Jeff Francis (LHP) – signed with Cincinnati Reds
• Aaron Laffey (LHP) – signed with Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Alex Gordon – LF

2. Johnny Giavotella – 2B

3. Eric Hosmer – 1B

4. Billy Butler – DH

5. Mike Moustakas – 3B

6. Jeff Francoeur – RF

7. Lorenzo Cain – CF

8. Salvador Perez – C

9. Alcides Escobar – SS

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Luke Hochevar – RH

2. Jonathan Sanchez – LH

3. Bruce Chen – LH

4. Felipe Paulino – RH

5. Aaron Crow – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Joakim Soria – RH
• Jonathan Broxton – RH
• Greg Holland – RH
• Tim Collins -LH
• Louis Coleman – RH
• Jose Mijares – LH
• Blake Wood – RH

Projected Bench:

• Brayan Pena – C
• Yuniesky Betancourt – IF
• Chris Getz – IF
• Mitch Maier – OF

Variables:

• 8th and 9th inning – Soria had a down year and is looking to bounce back. Broxton did not pitch well before his season ended because of injury.
• Starting rotation – The rotation is the biggest unknown for the Royals. Is Hochever who he is at this point? Can Crow make the transition? The Royals need this group to step up to have any chance.
• Young and inexperienced – The Royals are young and inexperienced in the field. Much of the attention will be on Hosmer and Moustakas and whether they progress but several other starters are unproven.
• Outliers? – Gordon, Francoeur, and Escobar had the best (or close to best) seasons of their careers last season.
• Prospects – If the Royals promote some prospects, will they have an immediate impact?

Fantasy Implications:

• Second-year first basemen Eric Hosmer is the highest ranking Kansas City Royal in fantasy baseball. After the “elite” first basemen (Cabrera, Pujols, Votto Gonzalez, Fielder, Teixeria) Hosmer is definitely part of the discussion. For a second-year player, this is really saying something. First base is traditionally among the deepest, if it’s not the deepest position in fantasy baseball. The person who takes Hosmer in your league won’t take him reluctantly.
• The other highly touted sophomore, third basemen Mike Moustakas doesn’t rate as high as Hosmer because he wasn’t nearly as productive as Hosmer in his first season. For 2012, Moustakas will probably be on the outside as a starter at his position. Given his potential he may be worth the gamble and could be considered a bit of a sleeper.
• Last season, Gordon was probably drafted in very few leagues. He was however, picked up in every league at some point because he broke out in his fifth campaign. This season he’ll be drafted as a top 20 outfielder. Quite a turnaround for Gordon.
• Billy Butler is an interesting case. He’s definitely a player that will be drafted but it’s a matter of position and, to an extent, realizing what he is. Depending on your fantasy league, he may qualify as a first basemen. If not, he’s strictly a UTIL play and loses some value. He doesn’t do anything spectacular in fantasy but he contributes nicely in four traditional categories (R, HR, RBI, AVG) while contributing nothing in the stolen bases department. He’ll help a fantasy team a lot but he’s not a star.
• On offense, the other Royal to consider is Jeff Francoeur as a fourth outfielder, bench type player. With the way his production swings, it would be difficult to depend on him.
• Earlier I mentioned the Royals starting pitching being weak. Well, it’s weak in fantasy too. Jonathan Sanchez is the highest ranking starting pitcher in fantasy (64 by ESPN, 77 by Yahoo!) and doesn’t crack the top 60. Past performance will get some people to bite in the draft.
• I don’t “pay for saves” as a rule. Joakim Soria before last year was one of the top relief pitchers in fantasy baseball over the past five years but struggled last year. Now, he’s ranked somewhere in the mid teens and that makes him pretty interesting.
• If Soria struggles again, Jonathan Broxton may have value. It could happen, again if Soria struggles but also if Soria is traded which turns up on the rumor mill now and then. In order for Broxton to get a look in fantasy, he of course would have to be healthy and effective prior to potentially taking over for Soria.