The Detroit Tigers semi-unexpectedly won the American League Central division last season. The team then beat the mighty New York Yankees in the first round of the playoffs before being taken out by the Texas Rangers for the AL pennant. 2011 was the organization’s first division title since 1987. In a weak division and with one big impact addition the Tigers are primed to repeat as division champions in 2012.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The addition of free-agent first basemen Prince Fielder signaled one of the biggest offseason splashes; out of nowhere Fielder signed a monstrous 9-year, $214 million deal. Fielder is one of the best hitters in all of baseball. Putting him in the same lineup as Miguel Cabrera makes them one of the most feared 3-4 combos in MLB. With Fielder now with the team Cabrera has to move off first base; the team decided to move Cabrera back to his past position, third base. This will be an interesting experiment. Cabrera reported to Spring Training in better shape, but has also missed time after being hit in the face with a ground ball while playing the position, injuring his orbital bone. While Cabrera/Fielder should be the best offensive corner infield duo in baseball, they will likely be among the worst defensively. The addition of Fielder is offset by the loss of Victor Martinez who is most likely out for the season with a torn ACL. Gaining Fielder and losing Martinez is a net gain, though not as big a one as people may think. If Martinez is able to return healthy next season, the Tigers will have a loaded heart of the order. But that’s for 2013. For 2012, the rest of the Tigers lineup is better than adequate. Though he does not get on base enough and strikes out too much, Austin Jackson bats leadoff mainly because he has speed. He is a good center fielder but isn’t necessarily an impact bat in the balance. Likely to bat in the number two spot, Brennan Boesch has a chance to have an improved season at age 27. He likely won’t put up huge numbers but could serve as a decent starter. Delmon Young, Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta are all capable bats behind Fielder and Cabrera. Young doesn’t get on base a lot and hasn’t lived up to his first overall draft pick hype. Avila is coming off a breakout season. Peralta is coming off his best overall season and has some power. The rest of the position players will likely be made out of platoons at the left field and second base positions; Andy Dirks, Brandon Inge, Ryan Rayburn, Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago will all likely get some time. With two big-time stars in the middle of the lineup and decent production through most of the rest of the lineup the Tigers should have a high scoring offense, though it may not match last season’s top four ranking.

At the top of the starting rotation is 2011 AL MVP and AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander. The Detroit ace had already established himself as a top-tier starting pitcher before last season, but took it to another level in dominating competition. With Verlander, the Tigers are favored in essentially any game he starts. Behind Verlander is Max Scherzer who many expected to have a breakout season a year ago, but was mostly up-and-down. Scherzer will turn 28 later this season and still has room to improve into a strong number two starter. He certainly has the tools but will look to be more efficient. Mid-season acquisition Doug Fister had a breakout season in 2011. It is unlikely he’ll be as good statistically this season. He’s more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher, but should still be a decent middle of the rotation starter this season. Fister is followed by Rick Porcello, the former first round pick who has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career, even though he is still only 23 years old. The Tigers would like to see improvement from Porcello overall, but especially in the strikeout department where he is below 5.0 K/9 for his career. The last spot in the rotation is set to go to Andrew Oliver, a 24 year old with only seven career Major League starts. Verlander at the top elevates the rotation considerably. Scherzer, Fister, and Porcello should be able to fill in their roles as the two-through-four starters for the team. The Tigers starting rotation is not spectacular but with a strong ace and a good offense it doesn’t have to be.

The bullpen has several strikeout pitchers. Six of the seven projected members of the bullpen had a strikeout per nine rate over eight. The team’s closer, Jose Valverde was 49 for 49 in save opportunities last season. The offseason addition of Octavio Dotel should help the team in the late innings. He and Joaquin Benoit will be the setup men. Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth will give the team two left-handed options out of the pen. The Tigers bullpen shouldn’t be an issue.

The Detroit Tigers enter 2012 as the clear favorites for the AL Central championship. The team is built around three of the best in the game in Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder (*). The 3-4 in the lineup is as dangerous as any in baseball. The rest of the lineup should be productive enough to keep the offense in the top third in the league. The rotation should be fine with Verlander at the top. While the Tigers should finish on top of the AL Central, I think they are a bit overrated in relation to the other powers in the American League.

(*) Next season with Victor Martinez, the team will have four great players.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Prince Fielder (1B) – free agent
• Octavio Dotel (RHP) – free agent
• Gerald Laird (C) – free agent
• Collin Balester (RHP) – trade with Washington Nationals

Subtractions:

• Magglio Ordonez (OF) – unsigned
• Wilson Betemit (IF) – signed with Baltimore Orioles
• Brad Penny (RHP) – signed with Fukuoka (Japan)
• Joel Zumaya (RHP) – signed with Minnesota Twins
• Carlos Guillen (IF) – signed with Seattle Mariners, retired
• Will Rhymes (IF) – signed with Tampa Bay Rays
• Ryan Perry (RHP) – trade with Washington Nationals

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson – CF

2. Brennan Boesch – RF

3. Miguel Cabrera – 3B

4. Prince Fielder – 1B

5. Delmon Young – DH

6. Alex Avila – C

7. Jhonny Peralta – SS

8. Andy Dirks – LF

9. Ryan Rayburn – 2B

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Justin Verlander – RH

2. Max Scherzer – RH

3. Doug Fister – RH

4. Rick Porcello – RH

5. Andrew Oliver – LH

Projected Bullpen:

• Jose Valverde – RH
• Joaquin Benoit – RH
• Octavio Dotel – RH
• Daniel Schlereth – LH
• Phil Coke – LH
• Brayan Villarreal – RH
• Collin Balester – RH

Projected Bench:

• Gerald Laird – C
• Brandon Inge – IF
• Ramon Santiago – IF
• Don Kelly – IF/OF

Projected Disabled List (start of the season):

• Victor Martinez – C
• Al Albuquerque – RHP

Variables:

• Defense – This is a clear area of weakness for the team. With Cabrera moving positions and Fielder coming in to fill first base, the corner infield spots are weak defensively. I wouldn’t say that Peralta has great range at shortstop. Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young are not good defenders either, though Austin Jackson could clean up some of their shortcomings with his glove.
• Rotation after Verlander – Can Scherzer step up as a number two starter? Will Doug Fister take a step back? Will Porcello show his first round talent? How effective will Andrew Oliver and his 31 2/3 innings of Major League be this season?
• Missing Victor – The addition of Fielder helps but Victor Martinez is a great hitter and a known leader. It will be interesting to see how much he is missed.
• Career years – Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila are both coming off the best seasons of their careers. After Cabrera and Fielder both players are relied on to keep the lineup strong.
• Bullpen – Should be fine but it there is a possibility that several players have weaker seasons this year than last. Valverde for instance didn’t blow a save but his overall statistics were not as spectacular.

Fantasy Implications:

• The consensus first pick in fantasy baseball drafts is Miguel Cabrera. Simply put, Cabrera is one of the purest hitters in all of baseball. He should put up massive numbers everywhere except in stolen bases. He gets to number one status this season because of his move from first base to third base. Shortly into the season, fantasy owners will be able to use him at a scarcer position while having position flexibility. He reported to camp in better shape too. With the first pick, I’d take him.
• Justin Verlander is one of fantasy baseball’s best starting pitchers. He’s rated as a top three pitcher going into the season. I expect Verlander to be great again, but he will be hard pressed to match last season’s numbers. He’s not someone I am targeting because he pitched as well as he possibly could have last season and has a weaker defense behind him.
• Prince Fielder gives the Tigers two of the top five first basemen in fantasy baseball. He likely won’t hit for an elite average and he certainly won’t steal bases but his other numbers should be great. Fielder is the clear fifth best first basemen this season in fantasy baseball and should be an early round pick.
• After being a popular sleeper last season Max Scherzer’s fantasy stock has taken a hit after an erratic 2011. Strikeouts are Scherzer’s strong suit but he’ll need to have a better ERA and WHIP to get fantasy players back on his side. As a fourth starting pitcher he could have good value this season.
• After last season’s breakout, catcher Alex Avila safely figures in as a fantasy baseball starter at the position. In 2011, Avila almost hit .300 with 20 home runs. Both of those numbers will likely come down this season, but Avila should still put up good numbers for the position.
• Doug Fister is a starting pitcher I am avoiding in fantasy baseball. I expect his numbers to come down this year. Even if he is able to follow up his strong 2011, he is unlikely to strikeout enough batters to have good fantasy value.
• If you are thinking about drafting Jhonny Peralta have the idea that you are not going to get last season’s production. Peralta’s .299 average and 21 home runs are likely to come down. He doesn’t run at all. The shortstop is a borderline starter at the position. If you are looking for power out of the position he’s a nice, relatively inexpensive option.
• Jose Valverde has the value of a top ten closer but I wouldn’t want to pay the price for him this season. He didn’t blow a save during the regular season but things are rarely easy for Valverde.
• The Tigers do not have any great outfield options. Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson have about the same fantasy value overall. They’re only worth late consideration. It depends what your team needs, but Boesch is probably the best option of the bunch. If you need runs or speed, Jackson is easily the choice.
• Ryan Rayburn is maybe worth late round consideration if you need second base help. I’m not sure how much playing time he’ll get.