Led by their four all-star caliber starting pitchers and a capable offense, the Philadelphia Phillies posted the best regular season record of any Major League Baseball team in 2011. Unfortunately for Philadelphia regular season success was not realized in the postseason as the team was bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the eventual World Series champions, the St. Louis Cardinals. 2011 marked the fifth consecutive National League East division title for Philadelphia. In 2012 it will be more difficult for the Phillies to continue their stranglehold on the division. Miami and Washington are improved and Atlanta still lurks while Philadelphia is headed closer to the pack due to losses on the roster and age.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The majority of the position players the Philadelphia Phillies rely on are on the wrong side of the age of 30. Age and injuries have caught up to the Phillies to some extent. In 2011, for the first time since the 2003 season, the team finished outside the top 10 in runs scored. Two of the team’s most important and recognizable players, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, are likely to miss significant time this season due to injury (*). The Phillies need both players (especially Utley) to return healthy to the middle of the lineup. Utley’s replacement is Freddy Galvis, a 22-year old with no Major League experience. Ty Wiggington and Jim Thome will fill-in for Howard at first base. Even with Utley and Howard out, the Phillies have a serviceable front half of the lineup. Jimmy Rollins will once again be in the leadoff spot and will have to step up in Utley and Howard’s absence. Rollins’ production has come down in recent seasons. Placido Polanco, once one of the best number two hitters in the game, has had problems staying on the field since his return to Philadelphia two years ago; Polanco, now 36 years old, has missed 70 games over the last two seasons. He doesn’t do a ton offensively anymore, but he is a veteran presence with a good glove. Shane Victorino, coming off his best all-around season even though he missed 30 games, is one of the better outfielders in baseball. In a contract year, Victorino is expected to have another productive season. A mid-season addition in 2011, Hunter Pence will have to take on more of the offensive load this season. After Rollins, Polanco, Victorino, Pence and the first base spot (Wiggington or Thome), the Phillies projected lineup finishes out with John Mayberry Jr., Carlos Ruiz, and Galvis. Given the rest of Philadelphia’s roster, the offense won’t need to be a powerhouse. The organization will hope the current lineup stays healthy and is able to hold it down until Utley and Howard return. With both players out already and several others with age/injury concerns, the Phillies will likely struggle to be an elite team in the field/at the plate. A lot of things will have to break right for them to finish among the best teams in runs scored in 2012.

(*) Utley has a chronic knee problem. Howard tore his Achilles tendon on the team’s final play of 2011.

The strength of the Philadelphia Phillies without a doubt is the team’s top three starting pitchers, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Last season’s fourth ace, Roy Oswalt, is no longer with the team as he remains unsigned (**). There is a reasonable argument to be made that the Phillies have two of the top five starting pitchers in baseball and safely three of the top fifteen. Halladay, Lee and Hamels (***) will have to take on more of the load and responsibility this season with the probable offensive issues the team faces. They should be up to the task. Each pitcher should be able to put up workhorse-like numbers with an ERA near or below 3.00. This is the best one-through-three starting rotation in MLB. The fourth starter, Vance Worley, was a pleasant surprise for the club in 2011 posting an 11-3 record and a 3.01 ERA. Worley’s numbers and general effectiveness likely won’t match last season, but as the fourth starter in a strong rotation he should fit in fine. The last spot in the starting rotation will be filled by Joe Blanton who made only eight starts last season, limited with an elbow injury. A healthy Joe Blanton is capable of being an average Major League starting pitcher. If Blanton or anyone is injured, Kyle Kendrick would be the first pitcher to take over in the rotation. The Philadelphia Phillies feature as strong a top of the starting rotation as any team in Major League Baseball (****). Worley and Blanton have the ability to effectively round out one of baseball’s best rotations while I expect Kyle Kendrick to get a decent amount of starts one way or another. In 2011, the Phillies had MLB’s best runs against mark, besting the San Francisco Giants by a staggering 49 runs; Philly shouldn’t be as dominant this season but will still be a top-tier pitching staff.

(**) The “four aces” the Phillies had in 2011 was never fully realized as Oswalt made only 23 starts due to lower back injuries.

(***) Hamels is in a contract year. He is about to get paid a lot of money. Unless the organization further increases its payroll (seems unlikely) or gets creative (trades), this may be his last season with the club.

(****) Halladay-Lee-Hamels is one of the best 1-2-3 combinations in recent memory. 

The bullpen should be fine. In the offseason the organization brought in Jonathan Papelbon on a ridiculous 4-year, $50 million contract. Papelbon is one of the game’s best closers, but committing four years to any relief pitcher, let alone one over the age of 30, is borderline reckless. After Papelbon is the solid lefty Antonio Bastardo. Chad Qualls and Jose Contreras (if healthy) figure in the later innings as well. Kyle Kendrick is slated for long relief duty. With a great starting rotation the bullpen shouldn’t be overtaxed during the season.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a quest for their sixth straight NL East crown. It certainly doesn’t look like it’s going to be easy. The division is improved and deeper with the moves made by Miami and Washington. The Atlanta Braves were only a game away from the playoffs last season. Philly doesn’t appear to be as good as last season even though the team possesses many talented players. An aging and possibly injured roster will make things tough. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are expected to miss time which places more responsibility on Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. The starting rotation, specifically the top three of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels is the strength of the team. The rest of the pitching staff should fit in well. The Phillies could capture another NL East championship but could just as easily find themselves struggling to make the playoffs.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Jonathan Papelbon (RHP) – free agent
• Ty Wiggington (IF) – trade with Colorado Rockies
• Jim Thome (1B) – free agent
• Laynce Nix (OF) – free agent
• Juan Pierre (OF) – free agent
• Chad Qualls (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Roy Oswalt (RHP) – unsigned
• Raul Ibanez (OF) – signed with New York Yankees
• Ryan Madson (RHP) – signed with Cincinnati Reds
• Ben Francisco (OF) – trade with Toronto Blue Jays
• Brad Lidge (RHP) – signed with Washington Nationals
• Wilson Valdez (IF) – trade with Cincinnati Reds
• Ross Gload (1B/OF) – unsigned

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Jimmy Rollins – SS

2. Placido Polanco – 3B

3. Shane Victorino – CF

4. Hunter Pence – RF

5. Ty Wiggington – 1B

6. John Mayberry Jr. – LF

7. Carlos Ruiz – C

8. Freddy Galvis – 2B

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Roy Halladay – RH

2. Cliff Lee – LH

3. Cole Hamels – LH

4. Vance Worley – RH

5. Joe Blanton – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Jonathan Papelbon – RH
• Antonio Bastardo – LH
• Jose Contreras – RH
• Chad Qualls – RH
• Mike Stutes – RH
• David Herndon – RH
• Kyle Kendrick – RH

Projected Bench:

• Brian Schneider – C
• Jim Thome – 1B
• Pete Orr – IF/OF
• Laynce Nix – OF
• Juan Pierre – OF

Projected Disabled List (start of the season):

• Chase Utley – 2B
• Ryan Howard – 1B
• Michael Martinez – IF/OF

Variables:

• Second Base – Chase Utley is a complete question mark at this time. He isn’t expected to have surgery or injections in his knees to help the problem. He’ll look to rehab/rest his knees and hope the problem is workable. His replacement would have been Michael Martinez but he may be out for two months with a fracture in his foot. That leaves the inexperienced Galvis to get starters time. Second base is a huge question mark heading into the 2012 season.
• Howard – It is unknown how long Ryan Howard will be out with his Achilles injury. The combination of Wiggington and Thome should fill-in well enough, but the highly paid Howard can deliver more, especially offensive punch. The Phillies need his bat in the middle of the lineup.
• Offense – The Phillies offense likely won’t be well above average with Utley and Howard out. Other players will have to step up in their absence.
• Age and injuries – Two high impact players are already out. The Phillies rely on several players over the age of 30 to contribute. Diminishing production and injuries could steer the Phillies season in the wrong direction.
• Roster flexibility – The organization has a payroll that may be second highest to the New York Yankees. If the front office wants to add payroll it will be interesting if they will be allowed to.
• 4 & 5 in rotation – Worley and Blanton should be fine if healthy, but it wouldn’t be a shock if either struggled.

Fantasy Implications:

• Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are consensus top eight starting fantasy baseball pitchers. The trio will all go off the board early; Halladay is fantasy baseball’s top starting pitcher. I expect the three pitchers to all have exceptional seasons. Draft accordingly. Each could serve as a fantasy team’s ace.
• Right fielder Hunter Pence is a top fifteen outfielder in fantasy baseball. He is coming off his best fantasy season after hitting for a higher batting average, .314, than any of his other full seasons in the big leagues. I expect the average to come down to the .280-.290 range. Still, he should hit in the mid-20s in home runs with double digit steals and somewhere in the high 80s, low 90s in runs and RBIs. It will be interesting to see how well Pence does with more pressure on him in his first full season with the club.
• Jimmy Rollins is easily one of the top seven players at shortstop. He has power and good speed while batting at the top of the lineup which should help his run total. He probably won’t hit for a very good average – hope for somewhere in the high .270s. Rollins has missed at least 20 games in three of the last four seasons.
• Shane Victorino had a great 2011 season. He is a borderline top 20 outfielder in fantasy baseball. He won’t hit .300, but he should hit somewhere in the high teens in home runs. His run total should be solid and he may have more RBIs as he hits in the middle of the lineup. He also should steal a good amount of bases too. In a contract year, I expect Victorino to have a nice 2012 season.
• If Chase Utley was healthy he’d be an easy top 10 second basemen. With his injury it’s difficult to know what to do with him because it is unknown when he will play. He is still worth a roster spot but I wouldn’t go out of my way to draft or hold a spot for him.
• Philadelphia’s closer, Jonathan Papelbon is one of the reliable in the game. He has a good strikeout rate for his career. His ERA and WHIP should be fine and you should expect somewhere in the 30s in saves.
• It is really unknown when Ryan Howard will return. Once he returns there will be questions about how well he is able to play coming off a rough injury. He is worth a DL spot but he may just sit on the bench/DL for a while.
• Vance Worley is worth a late fantasy pick in a standard league. I wouldn’t expect the same fantasy output from 2011, but he could be a serviceable fantasy pitcher.
• John Mayberry Jr. should get a lot of time in left field this season. He’s not a big fantasy commodity, but may be able to reach double digits in home runs and stolen bases.
• I’m not sure Ty Wiggington or Jim Thome will get enough consistent playing time to have a fantasy baseball impact.
• Carlos Ruiz isn’t a much of a fantasy player but if you need batting average out of your catcher spot he helps there.