The New York Yankees, Major League Baseball’s most successful franchise in history, continue to be a top-tier organization. Having a $200+ million payroll, about $40 million larger than the next highest team, certainly helps. But one has to give the Yankees some credit for spending their money well enough to field a team with a chance to win the World Series every year. In the past 17 seasons the Yankees have made the playoffs 16 times, winning the World Series five times. Recent years haven’t been as successful by Yankees’ standards. Since the Boston Red Sox epic comeback against New York in 2004 the team won one World Series (2009), but also missed the playoffs for the only time during that 17-year stretch and was bounced in the first round four out of six trips. Again, these are by Yankees standards, not a normal team. In 2012, the Yankees are positioned once again to make a playoff run.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The New York Yankees return a high-powered, dynamic offense in 2012. You know who the principal characters are: Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, etc. Jeter turns 38 during the season; this will be his 17th season as a full-time Major Leaguer. His power has diminished in recent seasons but he can still hit and get on base. The Captain should have another solid season at the plate. 2011 marked the fourth consecutive season that Alex Rodriguez missed at least 20 games; he only played in 99 games, the lowest total since becoming a regular in 1996. It also marked the first time in 13 seasons that A-Rod did not hit at least 30 home runs and drive in 100. Injuries and the downhill side of his career are now a concern for the 36-year old. In related news, the Yankees owe Rodriguez $143 million through the 2017 season ($23.83 million annual average) (*). When the third basemen is in the lineup he still produces though his numbers are showing signs of decline. Unlike Jeter and Rodriguez, Robinson Cano is in his prime. He has been one of the top five second basemen in baseball since becoming a full-time player in 2005. He hits for power and run production while playing an up-the-middle position. Mark Teixeira is one of the best all-around first basemen in the game (**). He has been able to hit for power and drive in runs the past two seasons but some of his other numbers have suffered. That may be a result of a .268 average on balls in play in 2010 followed by a .239 mark last season; his batting average the last three seasons has dropped each year: .292, .256, .248. He’s still a force, but this is concerning. Then there’s center fielder Curtis Granderson who had far and away the best season of his career in 2011. Granderson saw a huge spike in his power numbers hitting 41 home runs, 11 more than in any other season; he also scored a ridiculous 136 times, tied for sixth most in a single season since 2000. The rest of the lineup isn’t too bad either with the high on-base Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, speedster Brett Gardner, and the designated hitter spot to be filled by Raul Ibanez most of the time. The New York Yankees offense has incredible depth and is as good as any other MLB team. The Bronx Bombers, second in runs scored last season, shouldn’t have much trouble putting runs on the board.

(*) Goodness gracious! I know Angels fans are still in the honeymoon-phase (rightfully so) with Albert Pujols, but this may be something they have to look forward to. When Pujols’ hits 36 years of age he will also have six years remaining on his deal. He will be owed $165 million during that stretch ($27.5 million annual average). 

(**) He is paid $22.5 million annually for the next five seasons.

The Yankees’ starting rotation had a makeover in the offseason. A.J. Burnett and Bartolo Colon are gone. Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda are in. Pineda was acquired in a trade with the Seattle Mariners that involved top prospect Jesus Montero and another prospect, Hector Noesi. The right-handed Pineda exceeded expectations in his first season in the Major Leagues with a K/9 rate over 9 and a K/BB rate near 3:1. He is only 23 years old and has all the physical tools. Kuroda comes to the Yanks after four underrated seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 37-year old Kuroda stated during the offseason that he preferred to return to the Dodgers or would explore going back to Japan; he eventually signed with the Yankees for 1-year, $10 million. It is concerning that he did not “want” to go to the east coast. He is another year older and pitching in the best division in baseball. I’m not saying he won’t be effective, but this is not a slam dunk (***). But the Yankees rotation is led by CC Sabathia, an absolute horse of a starting pitcher; each of the last five seasons, the big lefty has pitched a minimum of 230 innings. That’s incredible durability to go with big skills and performance. Sabathia is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for a reason. A pair of 25-year old right-handers, Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes, round out the projected rotation. Some of Nova’s advanced statistics are not great, but he was effective in 27 starts. The former first-round pick Hughes has been up and down in his career thus far, moving between the rotation and bullpen. Coming off a very poor season in which his average fastball velocity dropped for the second straight year, Hughes will look to regain his 2010 form. If there is poor performance and/or an injury in the starting rotation, Freddy Garcia could fill-in as he made 25 starts in 2011 and was effective. The soon to be 40-year Andy Pettitte decided to make a comeback and will likely figure in at some point, given his training goes well. The New York Yankees have a more talented rotation than 2011; it should be ready for the rigors of the American League East.

(***) I buy into the notion that it is different pitching with the New York Yankees (and to a lesser degree the Boston Red Sox). There is more media and fan pressure (and better competition). If you don’t “want” to be there and you struggle, things could spiral.

Mariano Rivera. He truly is a wonder (****). At the age of 42, Rivera is still getting it done. Since becoming a full-time reliever, he has only had one season out of 16 where his ERA was above 3.00 (it was 3.15 in 2007). He’s had 10 seasons where his ERA has been below 2.00. Mariano Rivera has been remarkably consistent and is showing few, if any signs of a downfall. David Robertson was one of the best setup men in baseball last season making 70 appearances and having a 13.5 K/9 rate. If Rafael Soriano, who missed most of the season with an elbow issue, is able to return to his abilities the bullpen should be dominant from the seventh inning on. Middle relievers Cory Wade and lefty Boone Logan should be effective in their roles. Freddy Garcia figures to be the long reliever. The Yankees bullpen has the potential to be one of the best in baseball in 2012.

(****) This is coming from someone who thinks most relief pitching can be found on the scrapheap.

The 2012 New York Yankees are loaded. The lineup is as deep as it gets in baseball. The starting rotation made solid improvements in the offseason and added depth in the process. This goes with a bullpen that could be of the shutdown variety in the late innings. The Yankees could conceivably improve on their second best runs scored mark and 10th best runs allowed ranking from last season (*****). The New York Yankees are primed for another postseason appearance.

(*****) The Yankees finished the 2011 regular season with the best run differential in Major League Baseball at +210. 

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Michael Pineda (RHP) – trade with Seattle Mariners
• Hiroki Kuroda (RHP) – free agent
• Raul Ibanez (DH/OF) – free agent
• Andy Pettitte (LHP) – free agent
• Cesar Cabral (LHP) – trade with Kansas City Royals
• Russell Branyan (DH/1B) – free agent
• Bill Hall (IF/OF) – free agent
• Clay Rapada (LHP) – free agent
• Jayson Nix (IF/OF) – free agent
• DeWayne Wise (OF) – free agent
• Cole Garner (OF) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Jorge Posada (C/DH) – retired
• A.J. Burnett (RHP) – trade with Pittsburgh Pirates
• Bartolo Colon (RHP) – signed with Oakland Athletics
• Jesus Montero (C/DH) – trade with Seattle Mariners
• Hector Noesi (RHP) – trade with Seattle Mariners
• Luis Ayala (RHP) – signed with Baltimore Orioles
• Sergio Mitre (RHP) – unsigned
• Damaso Marte (LHP) – unsigned
• Greg Golson – signed with Kansas City Royals

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter – SS

2. Curtis Granderson – CF

3. Robinson Cano – 2B

4. Alex Rodriguez – 3B

5. Mark Teixeira – 1B

6. Nick Swisher – RF

7. Raul Ibanez – DH

8. Russell Martin – C

9. Brett Gardner – LF

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia – LH

2. Hiroki Kuroda – RH

3. Michael Pineda – RH

4. Ivan Nova – RH

5. Phil Hughes – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Mariano Rivera – RH
• David Robertson – RH
• Rafael Soriano – RH
• Boone Logan – LH
• Cory Wade – RH
• Dellin Betances – RH
• Freddy Garcia – RH

Projected Bench:

• Francisco Cervelli – C
• Eric Chavez – CIF
• Eduardo Nunez – IF
• Andruw Jones – OF

Projected Disabled List (start of the season):

• Joba Chamberlain – RHP
• Pedro Feliciano – LHP
• David Aardsma – RHP

Variables:

• Pitching for NYY – The Yanks will be counting on two starting pitchers brought in during the offseason, Pineda and Kuroda. Pineda has age/experience issues (and some concerns over his velocity this spring) while Kuroda will have a big adjustment from the west coast. Both pitchers are going from a light hitting division to the best division in baseball.
• A-Rod – If he is in the lineup he’ll be batting in the middle of the order. His production has fallen off some and he has injury concerns. It’s a question of how good he will be. Good or great.
• Age – Jeter, Rivera, and even Rodriguez are long in the tooth. They haven’t seen a dramatic drop off as they have gotten older…yet.
• Back-end of the rotation – Nova and Hughes are certainly capable but it is conceivable to see them struggle in their roles. Andy Pettitte and Freddy Garcia may get an opportunity if they falter.
• Granderson – He’s coming off a ridiculous season, easily the best of his career. He will try to follow it up strongly but it will be difficult to be as good.

Fantasy Implications:

• The top pre-draft rank for a Yankees player goes to second basemen Robinson Cano. Position scarcity plays a big factor. Cano is ranked as a mid-to-late first round pick and the top player at his position. He should hit over .300, go in the upper 20s in home runs and have over 100 runs/100 RBIs. He’d be a player I’d look at later in round one rather than the middle.
• Curtis Granderson had an excellent breakout year in 2011. He had 136 R/41 HR/119 RBI/25 SB and a serviceable .262 average – with those numbers, his average doesn’t become much of a concern. It would be a surprise if he is able to match that production, but he should still put up big numbers. Granderson should actually see dips across the board. Still, expect 30+ HR, 20+ SB, 100+ R, around 100 RBIs and an average that will be about 10 points lower or so. His pre-draft ranking is late second round/early third round as the seventh overall outfielder.
• In my opinion, Mark Teixeira is clearly the sixth best option for first base (he is rated sixth by Yahoo! and ESPN’s fantasy sites). His average has dropped in recent years but he still has big-time production hitting in the heart of the lineup. The production will be there and I think the average comes up a little this season. First base is not as deep as people think.
• The Yankees possess a true ace starting pitcher in CC Sabathia. On this team he has a good shot at 20 wins each year. His other numbers – K, ERA, WHIP – are all well above average. He’s pre-ranked outside the top five as a third or fourth round pick. There’s fantasy value to be had here.
• One of the more interesting fantasy cases this season will be Alex Rodriguez. He is pre-ranked outside the top five at his position for the first time in years (8th Yahoo!, 9th ESPN). A-Rod has missed a decent-to-significant amount of time the last four seasons including 63 games last year. His production has suffered too as his batting average is on the decline and he doesn’t run nearly as much as he used to. You’ll have to consider the way your roster is constructed before picking Rodriguez.
• I would be a little worried to draft Michael Pineda this year. He slowed down going down the stretch last season, moves to the biggest stage in baseball, and a much better hitters’ park. He’s being drafted as a second or third fantasy starting pitcher. I wouldn’t want to pay that price. He’ll have a much better chance to win games and he’ll have a lot of strikeouts. I worry about ERA and WHIP.
• The best tool in Brett Gardner’s repertoire is speed. He should steal close to 50 bases. His average is not great (hope for somewhere in the .270s). He should score a lot of runs but doesn’t add much in the home run or RBI categories. If you need speed, look for him as a third or fourth outfielder.
• Behind Craig Kimbrel, Mariano Rivera is fantasy baseball’s best closer. You can’t argue with the consistency. Rivera should have plenty of opportunities and a dominant ERA and WHIP. At 42, he’s still as safe a relief pitcher as there is out there. I typically wait on drafted closers so it is unlikely I would take him. If you have a different strategy, Rivera should be the second closer taken, somewhere in the seventh or eighth round.
• At the shortstop position Derek Jeter is a back-end starter. In Jeter you get some average, a high run total, stolen bases in the teens and around 10 home runs. He is going to be 37 and missed 31 games last season so you may want to be cautious. He’s more of a “boring” fantasy selection but he can still help.
• Like fellow starting pitcher Michael Pineda, I am not hot on Hiroki Kuroda from a fantasy standpoint. This is not to say I think he’ll be terrible, but he’s up there in age and wasn’t exactly ecstatic about going to New York. Expect a higher ERA and WHIP, probably fewer strikeouts but better opportunities for wins. I’ve always liked Kuroda, but he’ll have to drop a bit for me to draft him.
• Nick Swisher has been pretty consistent in terms of production. He’s bankable for mid-20s in home runs and mid-80s for runs and RBIs. His batting average could fluctuate but will probably end up in the .250s or .260s. Swisher doesn’t provide stolen bases. He’s not a great fantasy option but is definitely draftable and will help teams out.
• The Yankees’ starting catcher Russell Martin hit a surprising 18 home runs last season. I expect the power numbers to come down in 2012, though, he should still hit somewhere in the low-to-mid teens. He could also get to double digit steals, which would likely lead the position. Martin has a pre-draft ranking outside the top 10. I believe there are eight for sure fantasy starting catchers than a group of about five or six that could range anywhere from 9-15 for the position. If you need a little speed and you have batting average locked up, Martin is not a bad pick as your starter.
• Last year David Robertson was one of the best setup men in baseball. He had a high K/9 with a good ERA and WHIP. He should be the 8th inning pitcher for the Yankees. If you are looking for a non-closing relief pitcher, he’s an interesting player.
• I wouldn’t look to draft Phil Hughes or Ivan Nova, but they may be worth monitoring on the waiver wire. If they stick in the rotation and you need wins, they should have opportunities in that department.
• I’m going to avoid Raul Ibanez in fantasy drafts. I need to see that he has gas left in the tank.