Following consecutive last place finishes in the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks came out of nowhere to capture the division in 2011. The D-Backs had a 29 game turnaround with a team that was largely the same from the previous year. This wasn’t the first time the young franchise had done this. In its 14-year history, Arizona has won the division five times (and the World Series once). Four out of the five times the team won the division, it finished third or worse the year before. In 2012, the Diamondbacks will look to build off of an improbable run to the playoffs and repeat as division champions. NL West history tells us this will be tough. In the 17 seasons since re-alignment, only three teams have repeated as champions of the division. Arizona has a good enough team to do it but the competition should be improved from a year ago.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

There were five position players, Justin Upton, Chris Young, Ryan Roberts, Gerardo Parra, and Miguel Montero, that played in at least 140 games last season. Each player had the best year of his career. It will be interesting to see which players are able to improve and which ones may have had a fluky year. The performance of some of these players will inform the success (or failure) of the 2012 Diamondbacks. The surest bet to repeat and exceed his performance from last season is Justin Upton, who has developed into one of baseball’s best outfielders at the age of 24. The former first overall pick has power, speed, and defense. A young player already with four full seasons under his belt, Upton is in a position to be a top-tier major leaguer for years to come. Center fielder Chris Young will be coming off back-to-back very good seasons and enters the year at 28 years of age. Young does not hit for average, but has 20/20 potential to go with solid defense. He should be able to back up his last two seasons. Arizona’s catcher, Miguel Montero, played in 12 more games than any other of his six Major League seasons in 2011. Montero is talented but it would not be a shock if he played in fewer games in 2012 whether it is for rest or injury. When he is out of the lineup, his bat is missed. The versatile Ryan Roberts will have a hard time replicating last season. Roberts may be a relatively late-bloomer, but he is on the wrong side of 30. He has appeared in 307 games for his career, 143 of them were last season (47%). This could be a really nice story of a player finding the right home or it could be a one-year wonder situation. I expect Roberts to have a weaker season, though the drop off not to be colossal. Gerardo Parra will have a more difficult time seeing the field this season with the offseason addition of Jason Kubel. Parra moves into a fourth outfielder role. Last season he saw big spikes in his numbers; at 25 he still has time to develop but it looks like he will need something to happen to see as much of the field (*). Arizona presumably brought in Kubel to add some power to the lineup. He is looking to turn things around after two poor years in a row. The D-Backs have questions with the rest of their starters. Stephen Drew is expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from a broken ankle; who knows when he will be back and what type of player he will be (**). Aaron Hill, a 2011 mid-season addition, hasn’t eclipsed .300 in on-base percentage or .400 in slugging percentage the last two seasons after having a monster 2009 season. This will be first basemen Paul Goldschmidt’s first full season in the big leagues, so his performance could fluctuate greatly. He has big power but a high strikeout rate. The Arizona Diamondbacks position players have the potential to follow up on a strong season but could just as easily regress as a unit.

(*) I completely expect Parra to be used as a late-game defensive replacement for Kubel. Parra won a Gold Glove last season and Kubel is not exactly a stalwart defensively. 

(**) If he is able to return to past performance that would be a boon for the club.

The Diamondbacks have starting pitching depth. Last season, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and Joe Saunders all made 30+ starts and pitched over 200 innings. They all return to the rotation. In the off-season, the front office added Trevor Cahill via trade with the Oakland Athletics. Cahill too made 30+ starts and pitched over 200 innings. Along with those four, the rotation will also include last year’s surprise pitcher Josh Collmenter. But behind the five starters who will begin the season, the Diamondbacks have two highly touted prospects, Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs, in the minor leagues. Both pitchers will supposedly be ready for prime-time this season. If a spot start was needed the club could look at Barry Enright or Wade Miley who each made seven starts last season. So, Arizona has options. The top three in the rotation, Kennedy, Hudson and Cahill, are solid and young (***). Kennedy and Hudson are both coming off breakout years. Saunders is essentially an innings-eater, pitch-to-contact type starter who is over the age of 30. He may be serviceable, but the ceiling is low. Collmenter, like Saunders, may be serviceable. He doesn’t have much velocity and doesn’t have a high strikeout per nine mark meaning command and control are crucial to his success. The Diamondbacks have a solid group of starters and depth.

(***) Kennedy is the oldest of the group at 27. Hudson is 25, Cahill is 24. With Bauer and Skaggs waiting in the wings, the starting pitching situation is setup for years down the road. 

Arizona’s bullpen should be pretty good. J.J. Putz and David Hernandez are an above average 8th/9th inning duo. It’s never a surprise when the 35-year old Putz lands on the disabled list. Hernandez pitched well in the closer role when Putz went on the DL last season. Takashi Saito and Craig Breslow were added in the offseason. Saito missed a ton of time last year and eventually landed on the 60-day DL. Breslow may be OK as the top lefty in the pen with Joe Paterson figuring in as more of a specialist. Health is a concern in the pen.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have what it takes to repeat as division champions. In 2011, the D-Backs were balanced finishing 9th in runs scored and 11th in runs allowed. Offensively, several players are coming off a career year. There are questions about whether they can repeat last year’s performance. The rest of the lineup is questionable for one reason or another. The starting rotation is solid 1-3 and possibly serviceable in the back-end. The organization has two prospects ready to leave a mark. If injury-free, the bullpen should be effective. Arizona should be better tested in the division this year, especially from the San Francisco Giants.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Trevor Cahill (RHP) – trade with Oakland Athletics
• Jason Kubel (OF) – free agent
• Takashi Saito (RHP) – free agent
• Craig Breslow (LHP) -trade with Oakland Athletics
• Craig Tatum (C) – claimed off waivers
• Chris Jakubauskas (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Xavier Nady (1B/OF) – signed with Washington Nationals
• Jason Marquis (RHP) – signed with Minnesota Twins
• Micah Owings (RHP) – signed with San Diego Padres
• Zach Duke (LHP) – signed with Houston Astros
• Armando Galarraga (RHP) – signed with Baltimore Orioles
• Juan Miranda (1B) – signed with Tampa Bay Rays
• Sean Burroughs (IF) – signed with Minnesota Twins
• Jarrod Parker (RHP) – trade with Oakland Athletics
• Collin Cowgill (OF) – trade with Oakland Athletics
• Ryan Cook (RHP) – trade with Oakland Athletics

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Ryan Roberts – 3B

2. Aaron Hill – 2B

3. Justin Upton – RF

4. Miguel Montero – C

5. Chris Young – CF

6. Jason Kubel – LF

7. Paul Goldschmidt – 1B

8. Willie Bloomquist – SS

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Ian Kennedy – RH

2. Trevor Cahill – RH

3. Daniel Hudson – RH

4. Joe Saunders – LH

5. Josh Collmenter – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• J.J. Putz – RH
• David Hernandez – RH
• Takashi Saito – RH
• Craig Breslow – LH
• Bryan Shaw – RH
• Joe Paterson – LH
• Brad Ziegler – RH

Projected Bench:

• Henry Blanco – C
• Lyle Overbay – 1B
• John McDonald – IF
• Geoff Blum – IF
• Gerardo Parra – OF

Projected Disabled List (start of the season):

• Stephen Drew – SS

Variables:

• Career years – The five position players that appeared in the most games for the team last season all had the best season of their careers. This follow up season will be interesting to watch.
• Drew – Solid player missed nearly half the season with an ankle fracture. When and how he comes back are up in the air.
• Goldschmidt – Likely will have to make adjustments in his first full season. His high strikeout rate could lead to growing pains.
• Back-end of rotation – Saunders and Collmenter will have to pitch well to keep their spots in the rotation with two prospects hot on their heels. 
• Kennedy & Hudson – Both had breakout seasons a year ago. A couple more players to monitor to see about follow up.
• Bullpen health – Closer Putz and setup man Saito have injury risk.
• Hill – Will look to regain some of his 2009 form after consecutive poor seasons.

Fantasy Implications:

• Outfielder Justin Upton figures in as a late first round fantasy baseball pick. He has 30 HR/20 SB/100 R potential to go with about 90 RBIs. The average is not fantastic (likely somewhere in the .280s) but will not hurt you either. Power, speed and upside, as he is only 24 years old. Last year may have been the start of something special.
• Do not pay for Ian Kennedy’s 2011 season…is what I would advise people to do. Kennedy was a stellar fantasy performer in 2011 with 21 wins, nearly 200 punch-outs and a low ERA/WHIP. I doubt he can reach those heights again, though he should still be effective and helpful in fantasy.
• Chris Young is a third outfielder on a fantasy team. He’s also someone that you would draft depending on team need. If you have enough batting average built up, you can afford to draft him and enjoy the power/speed combination.
• One player I liked last season and like again this season is Daniel Hudson. He’s going as a high-end third starter according to pre-draft rankings. He should be solid across the board.
• Miguel Montero is rated as one of the top seven fantasy catchers for 2012. Overall, he is slated just outside the top 100. I have reservations about investing a tenth round pick on a catcher that has played over 130 games one time. You’ll be paying for last year’s production if you draft Montero in the area he is expected to be picked. If he’s in the lineup consistently he should put up nice numbers including a home run total in the mid-to-high teens, decent average and useful production.
• Shortstop Stephen Drew would be a starter at the position in fantasy if not for his horrific injury last year. Drew has the potential to be a decent contributor across the board. He should return early enough in the season though that is unknown along with how effective he will be upon return. He’ll probably steal fewer bags this season than normal.
• Yahoo! and ESPN both rank Paul Goldschmidt as the 20th rated first basemen though their overall rank is far different with Yahoo! rating him 98th and ESPN ranking him 182. Goldschmidt will contribute in power categories but I fear his average will be low. I also worry about him struggling with his first full season in the Major Leagues.
• Ryan Roberts has second base and third base eligibility which assists his fantasy value. He also has some power and some speed. On the downside he hasn’t show he can hit for much average. He’ll likely be drafted in a lot of leagues because he can fill in at multiple positions. I won’t draft him unless he falls.
• I won’t be targeting J.J. Putz this season. He may be available when I look to draft my first closer but injury risk is there. If you like Putz, make sure to draft David Hernandez as well.
• Speaking of Hernandez, he’s a good non-closer option. The ERA and WHIP are not spectacular but he will strike batters out and will likely have the opportunity to nail down some saves at some point during the season.
• Jason Kubel has 20 home run ability but I’d rather go with someone with more upside. He will be in a better ballpark and in a better lineup though. The past couple years haven’t been great and Parra could steal some playing time.
• You may want to watch Aaron Hill on the waiver wire but he’s not draftable unless it’s in a deep fantasy league. He can hit for some power and steal some bases but I’d wait to see it.
• Trevor Cahill doesn’t do anything particularly well for fantasy baseball purposes. 
• A name to watch for later in the season is Trevor Bauer. He should get a chance at some point and has a high ceiling.
• I won’t be touching Joe Saunders or Josh Collmenter in any drafts. I may monitor on the waiver wire, but that’s it.