The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays went on an improbable run to the playoffs. The team began September 8.5 games out of a playoff spot. The Rays went 17-9 during the final month and, coupled with the Red Sox collapse, were able to pass Boston on the final day of the regular season to secure the AL Wild Card. Tampa Bay was then dispatched by the eventual AL champion Texas Rangers in the first round of the playoffs. The Rays are a young franchise with only 14 years of history. For a relatively recent expansion team with little money to spend in the toughest division in Major League Baseball, the franchise has been more successful than anyone could expect. The team finished in last place in the AL East nine times in its first 10 seasons; in that period the closest the team finished to first place was 18 games back while its average finish was 34 games back of first place. But the franchise turned it around in 2008 finishing in first place and winning the American League pennant. The Rays are one of the most well run organizations in MLB and have made the playoffs three of the past four seasons. In 2012, the team has a good chance to make it four playoff appearances in five seasons. 

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

With the exception of third basemen Evan Longoria the Rays lineup does not feature “stars” compared to other top teams in baseball. The front office though has constructed a solid group of everyday players. There may be no better example than the versatile and valuable Ben Zobrist. He can play multiple positions (2B/OF) well and is a productive offensive weapon. Zobrist has 20/20 ability to go with a high walk rate (12.1%). B.J. Upton probably hasn’t quite lived up to the second overall pick hype that surrounded him early in his career. Still, Upton plays solid defense in center field, has some power and has a good walk rate (11.2% for his career). Zobrist and Upton are not known for hitting for high averages, but they are solid all-around players. Longoria is one of baseball’s “stars” for good reason. In his four MLB seasons he has been great. He has a dynamic bat, hitting for power and getting on base, while being great defensively at third. He didn’t have his best season in 2011, hitting only .244 (his advanced numbers were better) and missing 29 games with a strained oblique. Desmond Jennings has star ability. Tampa Bay brought him up in July last year for the remainder of the season. Jennings is slated to bat leadoff and play every day in left field. He has decent power and great speed. His first full season may be an adjustment period. The front office made a savvy offseason move in signing Carlos Pena to a one-year deal. Like a lot of hitters in the Rays lineup, Pena doesn’t hit for a high average but gets on base and hits has big-time power (*). Matt Joyce had a solid season in 2011, his first as a regular. Tampa Bay probably does not expect big things from the bottom of its lineup – Luke Scott (DH), Sean Rodriguez (SS) and Jose Molina (C). The Rays will spend a little over $30 million in 2012 on its lineup – about $3.6 million per starter. Think about the New York Yankees who will pay Alex Rodriguez $29 million in 2012. The Rays field an entire starting lineup for a few million more than Rodriguez alone is paid. Tampa Bay does not have one of the most explosive offenses in the game but it is still solid with a chance of improving this season. It finished in the middle of the pack in 2011 in runs scored.

(*) Pena actually hits for a terrible average. .239 for his career.

The starting rotation should be the strength of the Rays. At the top are David Price and James Shields. David Price is developing into one of the better starting pitchers in baseball. The past two seasons he has been very good, going over 200 innings and 30 starts with a strikeout rate over eight and an ERA below 3.50. Shields is coming off his best Major League season, posting a 2.82 ERA and a strikeout rate over eight as well. Shields has been a stable presence the last five seasons making at least 30 starts and pitching at least 200 innings in each year; last season he pitched an incredible 249 1/3 innings. Some of Shields’ advanced statistics suggest that he is in line for a step back this season. If Shields is able to follow up a strong 2011, the Rays should have a 1-2 punch they can go to battle with. Next in line in the rotation is 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson. He had a nice first season in the Major Leagues, obviously and will look to build on it. Like Shields, many advanced numbers suggest that Hellickson’s performance this season may not be as good as last. He had a left on base percentage (LOB%) over 80% (league average around 70%-72%) and a strikeout to walk rate (K/BB) of 1.63 (2.0 and above is considered adequate). The fourth spot in the rotation is set to go to young phenom Matt Moore who came up at the end of the season and started the Rays first playoff game throwing 7 scoreless innings. Moore, the Rays top prospect, should be the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year this season. It will be his first big league season but Moore has all the skills to be among the best starting pitchers in the game. The last spot in the rotation comes down to a Spring Training battle between Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis. Whoever “loses” the battle will provide rotation depth. The Rays starting rotation should be among the best in baseball 1-5.

The Rays have a lot of options in the bullpen. The team has nine players that made at least 25 Major League appearances and pitched 28 innings. Kyle Farnsworth missed some time but was more than adequate in his first full year as a closer. Joel Peralta served as an above average setup man. Tampa Bay made three additions in the offseason that could help the bullpen. They signed Fernando Rodney and traded for Burke Badenhop and Josh Lueke. The team has to be hoping J.P. Howell returns to form after spending a lot of time on the disabled list the last two seasons. The Rays bullpen is not elite but should be serviceable.

The Tampa Bay Rays do not have as many resources as their division counterparts the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The Rays 2012 payroll will be just over $60 million while the Yankees and Red Sox will be over $200 million and $170 million, respectively. Still, the Rays organization has been able to put a team on the field that has made the playoffs three of the last four seasons. The Rays lineup is solid yet somewhat unspectacular. The starting rotation should be among the strongest in baseball and the bullpen should be able to hold leads. Tampa Bay is in position to battle for the postseason in 2012.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Carlos Pena (1B) – free agent
• Luke Scott (DH/OF) – free agent
• Jose Molina (C) – free agent
• Jeff Keppinger (IF) – free agent
• Fernando Rodney (RHP) – free agent
• Burke Badenhop (RHP) – trade with Miami Marlins
• Josh Lueke (RHP) – trade with Seattle Mariners

Subtractions:

• Casey Kotchman (1B) – signed with Cleveland Indians
• Johnny Damon (DH/OF) – unsigned
• Kelly Shoppach (C) – signed with Boston Red Sox
• Andy Sonnanstine (RHP) – signed with Chicago Cubs
• John Jaso (C) – trade with Seattle Mariners
• Juan Cruz (RHP) – signed with Pittsburgh Pirates
• Dan Johnson (1B) – signed with Chicago White Sox
• Russ Canzler (IF/OF) – trade with Cleveland Indians
• Justin Ruggiano (OF) – signed with Houston Astros

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Desmond Jennings – LF

2. B.J. Upton – CF

3. Evan Longoria – 3B

4. Carlos Pena – 1B

5. Ben Zobrist – 2B

6. Matt Joyce – RF

7. Luke Scott – DH

8. Sean Rodriguez – SS

9. Jose Molina – C

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. James Shields – RH

2. David Price – LH

3. Jeremy Hellickson – RH

4. Matt Moore – LH

5. Wade Davis – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Kyle Farnsworth – RH
• Joel Peralta – RH
• Jake McGee – LH
• Fernando Rodney – RH
• J.P. Howell – LH
• Burke Badenhop – RH
• Jeff Niemann – RH

Projected Bench:

• Jose Lobaton – C
• Reid Brignac – IF
• Jeff Keppinger – IF
• Sam Fuld – OF

Variables:

• Longoria – The star third basemen missed time last season and hit for a low average. He will look to bounce back in 2012. He is capable of being one of the best all-around players in baseball; in a loaded American League field, the Rays could use an MVP type season from Longoria.
• Jennings – He had a nice stint last season but will likely have to overcome some adversity in his first full season.
• Bottom of lineup – The bottom of the lineup is a mystery offensively. The team probably doesn’t expect much production. Maybe a surprise player will emerge.
• Regression? – Shields and Hellickson could be in line for a weaker 2012 season. Both have the ability to be very good so if there is a fall off it shouldn’t be substantial.
• Moore – He has all the tools. This will be his first full season so a lot could happen.
• Bullpen – A lot of options, though not too many are well above average. There could be turnover here.

Fantasy Implications:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have many position players that are probably better real life players than fantasy commodities.
• Even with a poor fantasy season last year, Evan Longoria has a pre-draft ranking just outside the first round as the second third basemen off the board (3rd third basemen if you count the soon-to-be-eligible Miguel Cabrera). I expect a bounce back season from Longoria, though injury risk has me slightly worried. I think his average will come up and his overall production should almost justify the high ranking.
• Second basemen/outfield eligible Ben Zobrist is a valuable fantasy player, particularly because of his 2B eligibility. Zobrist does not hit for average, though his will not kill your fantasy team’s. He is great in other fantasy categories with 20 HR/20 SB and 90 R/90 RBI potential. He’s ranked as a fifth rounder, fifth second basemen.
• ESPN ranks four starting pitchers, David Price, James Shields, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson, in the top 25 for the position. Yahoo! ranks the first three in the top 25 (with Moore only having RP eligibility for the moment) with Hellickson having a 44 ranking.
• Left-handed starting pitcher David Price is ranked as the 12th best SP by Yahoo! and ESPN. I expect big things from Price in 2012 as he figures to help across the board. If you wait out pitching a little, he may be a great first starter to take in the beginning of the fifth round.
• James Shields was one of the best fantasy starting pitchers last season. I doubt he can reach those highs again and I don’t like paying for one great season. That means it is unlikely I will draft Shields; I at least won’t reach. He could be drafted somewhere in the seventh or eighth round.
• I am a big believer in Matt Moore. I think he has huge tools to work with and showed in his brief appearance in the Major Leagues last season that he can pitch effectively at the highest of levels. The WHIP and ERA should be low; he should strikeout a ton of batters.
• As mentioned briefly above, Hellickson has a wide range in his ranking. I think he’ll fall somewhere in the middle of the 24 ranking by ESPN and the 44 ranking by Yahoo!. In his second year I am worried he’ll face some adversity. I’ll likely look for other pitchers going around the same area as him.
• One player Yahoo! and ESPN have ranked far differently is Desmond Jennings. Yahoo! ranks him 13th among outfielders, 43rd overall. ESPN ranks him 30th among outfielders, 103rd overall. I’m more in line with the ESPN ranking because I typically draft safe and this will be his first full MLB season. His average will probably not be too good. He could have somewhere in the mid-to-high teens in home runs and he should steal a lot of bases to go with a good run total.
• B.J. Upton is another Tampa Bay player that will likely hurt your average but should help in other areas. He could go over 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Batting near the top of the lineup should help his run total too. His pre-draft ranking is in the top 25 among outfielders.
• Matt Joyce is a potential starter in a five outfielder fantasy league. He could make it to double digit home runs and stolen bases with some run production.
• Carlos Pena will destroy your batting average and won’t help in stolen bases. He’ll hit around 30 home runs and have decent run and RBI totals. He is pre-draft ranked outside the top 20 by ESPN and outside the top 35 by Yahoo!. He is draftable as a backup first basemen that may get some time if you have extra spots in your fantasy lineup.
• For where Kyle Farnsworth is being drafted and the opportunities he’ll have, I’ll probably be targeting him as one of my closers.
• Sean Rodriguez could be worthy of a super-late draft pick. He has 2B, SS, and 3B eligibility and has a chance to get to double digits in home runs and stolen bases.