Going into September last season the Atlanta Braves were all set to make their second consecutive trip to the postseason. The team had a comfortable 8.5 game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals for the wild card. That lead soon turned out to not be so comfortable. The Braves struggled the entire month with an 8-18 record (including losing the last five games of the season) and were passed from behind by the eventual World Series champion Cardinals on the memorable last day of the regular season. Atlanta collapsed, missing the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons after winning their division 14 straight times from 1991-2005 (*). In 2012 the Atlanta Braves will look to turn the page from last season’s finish and focus on competing in an improved division from a year ago. 

(*) The Braves did not have a ton of postseason success in their 14 consecutive appearances capturing one championship and five pennants. They had a 12-13 playoff series record in that stretch. 

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

In the field, Atlanta is returning seven of its eight starters from the end of last season. Shortstop is the only position that will be manned by a different starter as last year’s starter, Alex Gonzalez, signed in the offseason with the Milwaukee Brewers (**). Atlanta did not make any significant offseason additions. This is not necessarily a bad thing for this team. The Braves had legitimate players starting across the board last season. One of the best players at his position is catcher Brian McCann. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2006, McCann and Minnesota’s Joe Mauer have been the two best at the position in baseball. The Braves catcher has been consistently solid over his career and figures to hit in the middle of the lineup providing over 20 home runs. The team needs better seasons from former standout prospect Jason Heyward, veteran second basemen Dan Uggla and the versatile Martin Prado. The hyped Heyward has been a disappointment in his first two MLB seasons, particularly last year where he missed 34 games and hit only .227 with 14 home runs. The right fielder is a five tool player capable of being one of the best in the game; he has to show it consistently this season. Uggla is coming off his worst big league season. He posted his lowest totals in average, on-base percentage, and slugging going .233/.311/.453. Uggla did however hit for his highest home run total with 36. Some of his offensive production may have been hurt by an unusually low (for him) .253 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Prado is coming off his worst season in three years also posting his lowest AVG/OBP/SLG totals in his career. He, like Heyward and Uggla, will be looking to return to form. Second-year first basemen Freddie Freeman, who finished second behind teammate Craig Kimbrel for NL Rookie of the Year, will be looking to develop further in the Major Leagues. Atlanta also has last year’s mid-season acquisition Michael Bourn, a center fielder with elite speed, and mainstay Chipper Jones who is nearing the end of his career and will need someone to fill-in at third base to preserve him for the season. The Atlanta Braves finished one game out of a playoff spot last season but would have had far and away the lowest runs scored total of any playoff team as they finished 22nd in the category, six spots below any playoff team. The Braves will be looking to improve in runs scored with some bounce back seasons from their regulars and more consistency throughout the lineup.

(**) Shortstop is going down to a Spring Training battle with prospect Tyler Pastornicky as the leader. Jack Wilson, out for the beginning of the season with a calf strain, will likely get a lot of time at the position when he returns.

Atlanta has a strong starting rotation but needs more stability in 2012. Last season the team had two starters, Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, make at least 30 starts. Neither will do so this season as Lowe was traded to Cleveland in the offseason while Hudson will begin the season on the disabled list after having back surgery. Jair Jurrjens went on the disabled list twice last season and only made 23 starts. Tommy Hanson also went on the disabled list twice with shoulder issues making only 22 starts; Atlanta will have to be cautious with the talented Hanson. Luckily the team has starting pitching depth even with the loss of Lowe. Once Hudson returns, the Braves will have at least seven starting pitching options including top prospect Julio Teheran (three MLB starts last season) and another top prospect Randall Delgado (seven starts in 2011). Atlanta certainly has enough starting pitchers but will seek better health and stability. A rotation of Jurrjens, Hudson, Hanson, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor would be among the strongest in Major League Baseball. In 2011, the Braves had the third best runs against mark.

The bullpen is one of the strongest in the game. Closer Craig Kimbrel and lefty setup man Jonny Venters were one of the best 8th/9th inning combinations in 2011. Both had fantastic seasons but were overtaxed and faded down the stretch. Kimbrel made 79 appearances, pitched 77 innings and allowed six runs in his last 7 1/3 innings pitched. From June 12th through September 8th, Kimbrel was dominant, not allowing a run in 37 2/3 innings giving up only 14 hits. Venters made 85 appearances, pitched 88 innings; he threw 12 1/3 innings in the last month of the season and gave up seven runs for a 5.11 ERA. Venters only gave up 11 runs before September and came into the month with a 1.31 ERA. Manager Fredi Gonzalez would be wise to preserve Kimbrel and Venters as much as possible. Another southpaw, Eric O’Flaherty, was also strong last season finishing with a 0.98 ERA in 73 2/3 innings. The bullpen welcomes back Kris Medlan who was only able to make two appearances last season because of injury. The remaining spots will be filled by returning players.

The Atlanta Braves rightfully did not panic after their late season collapse. Likely because of payroll issues the organization did not make any significant offseason additions. The team lost a starting position player (SS Gonzalez) a starting pitcher (Lowe) and a few bench/bullpen players (e.g. Brooks Conrad, Nate McClouth, George Sherill). The team will be constructed from in-house options but by and large returns intact. In the field, the Braves will look for improvements from players like Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla. Pitching is a strong area. The rotation has depth; the bullpen is young and talented. Atlanta has a strong enough team to make a playoff run, but it will be tougher than last season as the division is stronger with teams like Miami and Washington getting better in the offseason while the Braves stood pat.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Drew Sutton (IF/OF) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Derek Lowe – trade with Cleveland Indians
• Alex Gonzalez (IF) – signed with Milwaukee Brewers
• Brooks Conrad (IF) – signed with Milwaukee Brewers
• Nate McClouth (OF) – signed with Pittsburgh Pirates
• George Sherill (LHP) – signed with Seattle Mariners
• Scott Linebrink (RHP) – signed with St. Louis Cardinals
• Brandon Hicks (IF) – lost off waivers to Oakland Athletics
• Matt Young (2B/OF) – signed with Detroit Tigers

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Michael Bourn – CF

2. Martin Prado – LF

3. Chipper Jones – 3B

4. Brian McCann – C

5. Dan Uggla – 2B

6. Freddie Freeman – 1B

7. Jason Heyward – RF

8. Tyler Pastornicky – SS

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Jair Jurrjens – RH

2. Tommy Hanson – RH

3. Brandon Beachy – RH

4. Mike Minor – LH

5. Randall Delgado – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Craig Kimbrel – RH
• Jonny Venters – LH
• Eric O’Flaherty – LH
• Arodys Vizcaino – RH
• Kris Medlan – RH
• Jairo Asencio – RH
• Cristhian Martinez – RH

Projected Bench:

• David Ross – C
• Eric Hinske – 1B/OF
• Drew Sutton – IF
• Jose Constanza – OF
• Matt Diaz – OF

Projected Disabled List (start of the season):

• Tim Hudson – RHP
• Jack Wilson – IF

Variables:

• Heyward – He has tons of talent but has yet to show it over long periods in the Major Leagues. The Braves really need a stellar all around season out of the right fielder.
• Starting pitching health – Hudson is already out to begin the season. Jurrjens and Hanson missed time last season. There is depth but injury concern. The Braves possess several quality starters.
• Mid-season moves – The front office was quiet during the offseason. If they are in contention, can they make a big move to seal the deal?
• Bounce back – Martin Prado and Dan Uggla will both look to bounce back after having unusually weak seasons in 2011. The organization will be hoping last season was an outlier for the two players.
• Overusing Kimbrel and Venters – The 8th and 9th inning pitchers are great but need to be relied on less in 2012 so they can be strong the entire season.
• Shortstop – If/when Jack Wilson returns he will likely get a lot of time at shortstop. In the meantime the position will be held down by inexperienced options. Shortstop is a big question mark heading into the season.
• Chipper – He will turn 40 early in the season and will likely bat in the middle of the lineup when he is in it. Jones has missed time in recent seasons, including significant time the last two years.
• Bench – If position players go down the Braves will have capable bench options including Eric Hinske, Matt Diaz and Jose Constanza.

Fantasy Implications:

• Catcher Brian McCann is ranked in the top four at the position. He is easily the safest catcher option. He should be good for at least 20 home runs and decent numbers across the board particularly for the position. If you want a catcher early but want to be careful, McCann is your answer.
• Freddie Freeman is rated as the 120th overall player by Yahoo! and ESPN. He is not a starting first base option but is definitely draftable and worth a roster spot. He could figure in as a decent utility option. In NL-only leagues, Freeman is around a top five first basemen.
• Dan Uggla is slated as the first second basemen to take after the first couple rounds. After Cano, Pedroia, and Kinsler are taken, Uggla is rated as the next to draft, somewhere in the fourth round. The second basemen is an atypical fantasy second basemen because he hits for big power. Uggla struggled last season, especially in the first half, but still hit 36 home runs and decent production. His .233 average was brutal.
• He is good enough to be drafted, but I will not be looking to take Chipper Jones because of his age, the amount of games I expect him to miss, and a lack of upside. He will probably be owned in about half of fantasy leagues to begin the season.
• The pre-draft ranking for Michael Bourn is wildly different in Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. Yahoo! ranks him 21st among outfielders, 67 overall; ESPN ranks him 11th among outfielders, 35 overall. I am more on board with the Yahoo! rank. Bourn will steal a ton of bases and have a high run total but he has no power and won’t drive in runs. The average is a bit of a wild card but if you need speed you can find it in other areas.
• Jason Heyward is a wild card this season. If he breaks out, the sky is the limit. If not, he could hurt your team greatly. He is pre-ranked as a 25-35 outfielder. It will be up to the owner to determine how much they believe in Heyward. As a safe drafter, I doubt I will pick him in any leagues.
• In Yahoo!’s fantasy rankings, Martin Prado dropped 200 spots in performance from his 2010 season to his 2011 season. Prado heads into 2012 drafts as the number 14 third basemen and a 40+ outfielder. If you draft him, it will be for him to play third base. He is not a starter but is an intriguing early utility/bench option.
• Tommy Hanson is the top rated pitcher for Atlanta but is rated outside the top 20. He certainly has the talent to pitch inside the top 10 but injury risk keeps him outside. I would be careful drafting him and make sure you have insurance.
• Brandon Beachy is the next best fantasy starting pitching option according to pre-rankings where he is in the 30-35 range. Beachy figures to have a good strikeout total and a helpful ERA.
• Tim Hudson will miss the first part of the season but if he returns healthy he’ll be a solid starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. His ERA and WHIP should be his best contributions.
• I have a feeling Jair Jurrjens will be overdrafted. He is ranked outside the top 50 as a starting pitcher but people will look at past performance and his stats from last year as reason to draft him earlier. I will probably pass.
• Former seventh overall pick Mike Minor figures on the periphery in fantasy baseball. He is borderline draftable in a standard league but is someone to watch as a waiver pickup.
• If Julio Teheran gets an opportunity he will likely be picked up quickly in fantasy leagues.
• Craig Kimbrel is rated as the top fantasy reliever by Yahoo! and ESPN both. I typically wait on closers so someone else will take Kimbrel before me. Kimbrel should have a lot of saves to go with a ton of strikeouts for a reliever. His ERA and WHIP should be strong as well.
• As a non-closer reliever, Jonny Venters is elite. He will make a lot of appearances and be effective. If Kimbrel misses time, Venters is definitely someone to have on your team. He is a rare non-saves reliever who will be on a lot of teams.