The San Francisco Giants came into the 2011 season with high hopes having just come off winning the World Series the season before. Things didn’t turn out so well for the Giants last year though. The team was devastated by injuries the entire season. The only position player to play in more than 121 games was Aubrey Huff (who had a brutal season). 2010 Rookie of the Year Buster Posey only played in 45 games due to a broken leg. The team’s other standout position player, Pablo Sandoval, missed over a month of the season because of an injury. Beside the injuries, San Francisco relied too heavily on over the hill veterans. The Giants are better constructed and look to be healthier in 2012. The team should be in the mix for the NL West division crown.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

Sure, the 2011 San Francisco Giants had an inordinate amount of injuries to the position players. But the lineup was also poorly constructed, as it has been for several years. In recent seasons the Giants have been dreadful run scorers. From 2005-2011 the offense was 29th out of 30 in runs scored four times (*). The other three seasons, the team finished 23rd (2006), 26th (2009), and 17th (2010). Six of the last seven years the team finished in the bottom third in baseball in runs scored – the one time the team didn’t finish in the bottom third it won the World Series. In 2012, the offense and starting lineup in general should be better, though not great. Posey’s return from injury is the most critical element to the offense’s success. He is coming off a long layoff but has the ability to be a dynamic hitter in the middle of the lineup. The second most important thing for San Francisco is a healthy and productive Pablo Sandoval. He was great at the plate last season but missed 45 games. Posey and Sandoval are the two most dynamic players in the starting lineup and are both in their mid-twenties. The team needs both Posey and Sandoval healthy this season. The Giants made two additions to the outfield in the offseason acquiring Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan in trades. The outfield gets two capable bats at the top of the lineup, a little younger, and more athletic. Though the team lost mid-season addition Carlos Beltran (and others in the outfield) these moves will make the Giants outfield better in 2012. The bottom half of the lineup is cause for worry. Aubrey Huff is coming off a very poor year and is 35 years old. Nate Schierholtz, Freddy Sanchez, and Brandon Crawford are not exactly hitters that pitchers will fear in 2012. The Giants need to find as much playing time as possible for young Brandon Belt. He at least has a chance of becoming a presence in the middle of the lineup. San Francisco’s offensive production and everyday lineup should be improved from 2011, but still will not be league average.

(*) That’s four times in seven seasons!

Starting pitching is far and away the strength of the San Francisco Giants. The rotation features two-time National League Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, the more than solid Matt Cain, and young promising left-hander Madison Bumgarner at the top of the rotation. Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner make up one of baseball’s most formidable 1-3 starting pitcher combinations (**). While Lincecum and Cain are established top of the rotation pitchers, Bumgarner has all the makings of joining them. Last season’s surprise, Ryan Vogelsong, figures in as the fourth starter. Before 2011, the last time Vogelsong appeared in a Major League game was 2006. He pitched well last season, but is likely in line to have a lesser 2012; still, as a number four starter he should be fine. The fifth spot in the rotation goes to the very highly paid Barry Zito. One could safely say that Zito has been a complete disaster with the Giants. At the time he signed his deal with the Giants in 2007, 7-years, $126 million, it was the highest contract ever given out to a pitcher. In his tenure with San Francisco, Zito has never finished a season with more than 11 wins or an ERA below 4.00 and now his fastball is topping out in the mid-80s. He will be paid $19 million this season and $20 million in 2013 with a nice $7 million buyout coming in 2014 (***). If Zito is healthy he’ll be given every chance to stick in the rotation because of his contract. The Giants top three starters will give the team a chance to win a lot of games. Vogelsong is a bit of a mystery still and Zito will try to at least be a viable Major League starter. While the Giants offense has finished so many recent years with the second worst run scoring total, the Giants pitching staff has been the second best in runs allowed for three straight seasons.

(**) Probably second behind Philadelphia’s top three (Halladay, Lee, Hamels).

(***) Ouch. 

Charismatic closer Brian Wilson had two stints on the disabled list in 2011. Wilson had a poor year overall from the standards he set in 2009 and 2010. He will look to rebound this season. Most of San Francisco’s bullpen returns from last season. The six Giants returning to the bullpen from last season all made at least 49 appearances. The lone newcomer will likely be Clay Hensley who signed as a free agent in the offseason. The bullpen should perform just fine and benefits from having two legitimate left-handed pitchers in Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez.

Injuries and an unbalanced roster led to a disappointing title defense season for the San Francisco Giants. In some ways, though, the team was fortunate to finish 10 games above .500. The team is led by its three excellent starting pitchers and two high ceiling bats in the middle. With better health fortunes and an improved starting unit, the team should be more successful in 2012. Better run production is the key to San Francisco’s season.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Melky Cabrera (OF) – trade with Kansas City Royals
• Angel Pagan (OF) – trade with New York Mets
• Ryan Theriot (IF) – free agent
• Clay Hensley (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Carlos Beltran (OF) – signed with St. Louis Cardinals
• Jonathan Sanchez (LHP) – trade with Kansas City Royals
• Andres Torres (OF) – trade with New York Mets
• Cody Ross (OF) – signed with Boston Red Sox
• Mark DeRosa (IF/OF) – signed with Washington Nationals
• Jeff Keppinger (IF) – signed with Tampa Bay
• Ramon Ramirez (RHP) – trade with New York Mets
• Pat Burrell (OF) – retired
• Orlando Cabrera (IF) – retired
• Travis Ishikawa (1B/OF) – signed with Milwaukee Brewers
• Bill Hall (IF/OF) – signed with New York Yankees

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Angel Pagan – CF

2. Melky Cabrera – LF

3. Pablo Sandoval – 3B

4. Buster Posey – C

5. Aubrey Huff – 1B

6. Nate Schierholtz – RF

7. Freddy Sanchez – 2B

8. Brandon Crawford – SS

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Tim Lincecum – RH

2. Matt Cain – RH

3. Madison Bumgarner – LH

4. Ryan Vogelsong – RH

5. Barry Zito – LH

Projected Bullpen:

• Brian Wilson – RH
• Sergio Romo – RH
• Santiago Casilla – RH
• Jeremy Affeldt – LH
• Javier Lopez – LH
• Clay Hensley – RH
• Guillermo Mota – RH

Projected Bench:

• Chris Stewart – C
• Brandon Belt – 1B/OF
• Mike Fontenot – IF
• Ryan Theriot – IF
• Emmanuel Burriss – IF/OF

Variables:

• Health – As discussed above, the Giants were ruined by injuries to its position players last season. It is of critical importance Posey and Sandoval stay in the lineup.
• Run scoring – The Giants have some new additions to the starting lineup and expect better seasons from some of their veterans. The organization has to be hoping for better production offensively.
• Belt – One of the few players on the roster capable of adding offense. San Francisco has held him back thus far.
• Vogelsong – He unexpectedly had a nice 2011. How does he follow it up?
• Zito – There are questions about whether he can stick even as the back-of-the-rotation starter.

Fantasy Implications:

• In Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner, the Giants have three starting pitchers in the top 25 in fantasy baseball. Lincecum is a top 7 starting pitcher, Cain is in the top 15, and Bumgarner is somewhere around 20. I would actually target Cain and Bumgarner more than Lincecum considering where the players are being drafted. I think each player should have another solid-to-great fantasy season. The only category where each player may not be exceptional is wins because of the difficulty in predicting them and the potentially punch-less Giants offense.
• Third basemen (might have first base eligibility too) Pablo Sandoval is a top six pick at the position and is pre-ranked as a third rounder. Sandoval came into 2011 in much better shape and took off at the plate. He also missed more than a month in the season with an injury. Sandoval has big talent but lacks a consistent track record.
• At the catcher position, Buster Posey presents an interesting case. He has the potential to be the best fantasy catcher in the game but is also coming off a broken leg and a season in which he only played in 45 games. Given what he has done so far in his career and the promise he has shown for the future, I’m a believer. Posey should be one of the top five catchers off the board.
• Melky Cabrera had a huge fantasy season in 2011 with the Kansas City Royals. He finished as a top 25 player overall. His pre-rank for 2012 puts him as a fourth outfielder. Playing half of his games at AT&T Park doesn’t help but he should be batting in front of Sandoval and Posey. It’s doubtful he’ll have as good of a season as last year but the drop of shouldn’t keep him from being fantasy-relevant.
• Ryan Vogelsong was a great free agent add last season but he is still borderline draftable in 2012. He is a player I probably will not target until very late in the draft.
• Center fielder Angel Pagan may have decent fantasy value for a player that isn’t being drafted as a starter. He should help in the stolen bases department at minimum.
• Brandon Belt has first base and outfield eligibility. He won’t have fantasy value until he has guaranteed playing time which at earliest seems to be after Opening Day/your draft.
• I worry about Brian Wilson after last season (injuries, poor performance). He is being drafted as a top 10 reliever. I’d rather roll the dice on a lower ranked closer.