The Los Angeles Dodgers organization has been through a lot the last few years. The ownership situation became a complete disaster caused by poor financial management, a divorce, and a series of lawsuits which ultimately led Major League Baseball to decide to step in and oversee the organization. The Dodgers eventually went into bankruptcy. As the 2012 season is about to begin, Frank McCourt’s ownership of the franchise is about to end. McCourt and MLB came to an agreement in the offseason centered on McCourt selling the team. The new owner(s) will be selected early in April and take over the team by the end of the month. Though the team had some success under McCourt’s ownership, this was a necessary move. On the field in 2012, the Dodgers are piecing together a team on a limited budget and awaiting the team’s new owner(s).

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

It’s difficult to know what General Manager Ned Colletti has to work with financially but the Dodgers front office made some perplexing offseason moves. The team knew that Frank McCourt’s ownership would be coming to an end in 2012. Even with some uncertainty around the franchise, reasonably one would assume the team would put itself in a position for roster and financial flexibility post-ownership change. But the Dodgers made moves that tie the team down for an extra year (needlessly in my opinion) and made unnecessary signings. Perhaps most baffling is the 2-year, $8.75 million given out to second-basemen Mark Ellis who posted a .248/.288/.346 (AVG/OBP/SLG) last season at the age of 34. There is no doubt that Ellis was a one-year contract player. There was also no reason to give bench players Jerry Hairston Jr. or Tony Gwynn Jr. two-year deals. That’s not to say they can’t be decent bench players, but going two years, again, is unnecessary. The team also signed Adam Kennedy to be a reserve infielder when it has a player like Justin Sellers who may be just as good at this point, is younger, and less expensive. Re-signing Juan Rivera feels like an overpay, but it’s only a one-year deal. He gives the team a right handed bat needed against a left-handed starter – he will be playing as a regular though. Signing Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to two-year contracts seems unnecessary too. Capuano missed all of 2008 and 2009 with injuries (Tommy John surgery) meaning he has pitched a total of 252 innings the last four seasons. He had a nice 2011 season, but 2-years at $5 million average annual salary is excessive. Harang for 2-years, $12 million doesn’t make a lot of sense in large part because he’s been subpar the last two seasons. Who knows, but I think the team could have gotten either player for one-year instead of two or would have been better off signing different players for only a year. Why not sign Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal instead of signing both Capuano and Harang for two apiece? Kuroda is a far better pitcher and would have allowed roster/financial flexibility next season (and he wanted to play in Los Angeles). What the Capuano and Harang signings do is set the Dodgers up with the same rotation in 2013. They have arms in the minors (Nathan Eovaldi, Rubby De La Rosa when he returns from injury) that may be ready and there are always free agents (possibly Cole Hamels – not that having either Capuano or Harang would stop their pursuit of him, if there is one). In 2013 they pay Capuano $6 million and Harang $7 million. Those contracts aren’t going anywhere. The Dodgers needlessly created logjams for this season, but more importantly, for 2013.

The Dodgers starting lineup, top-to-bottom, does not inspire tons of confidence. In the middle is Matt Kemp, fresh off signing an 8-year, $160 million extension (*) in the offseason. Kemp was sensational in 2011 posting ridiculous offensive numbers including being a home run away from going 40/40 with a .986 OPS. He posted career highs in most offensive categories and looked like a completely different player. The challenge for Kemp now is consistency and establishing himself among the best in the game year-to-year. Kemp is not without question marks but the rest of the lineup is full of them. Andre Ethier is the Dodgers next best position player but isn’t necessarily a huge offensive force (his power numbers dropped off considerably last year); he’s more in the solid category (don’t get me wrong, he’s a good player). Ethier missed the last three weeks of the season with injury and has clashed with the organization at times. 2012 will be a telling year for Ethier (and his relationship with the team) because he will be a free agent. A player the Dodgers really need to see more out of this season is James Loney who, like Ethier, may be at a crossroads with the organization. Through the team’s first 112 games Loney only mustered 17 extra-base hits in 371 at-bats. Loney finally turned around his season with a hot final couple months. He does not hit for much power and hits for decent average; for a first basemen that is a bad combination. At 27, soon to be 28, the Dodgers need more out of Loney on the offensive side. The only true young player the team has in the projected lineup is Dee Gordon who is expected to start at shortstop and hit leadoff. Gordon has elite speed and could steal 50 bags. The problem with Gordon is he is a pure singles hitter; He has zero power, only had 11 extra-base hits in 224 at-bats and only 11 walks (233 plate appearances). Gordon will never hit for power but he has to have better at-bats and walk more. Otherwise you are looking at a player with a sub-.700 OPS. The rest of the projected lineup features several nearing-the-end-of-their-career veterans including Mark Ellis, Juan Rivera, and Juan Uribe. Nearly all Dodgers position players need to turn it around this season and have improved years.

(*) This is a pretty good gamble by the Dodgers. It’s a lot of money, clearly, but there is a lot to like about the deal. Where many players signed to similar deals are paid until they around the age of 40, Kemp’s deal ends when he is 34. He is also a great athlete (lowering injury risk) and plays a premium position (center field) adding extra value. He has immense talent and a high ceiling. Plus, I’m sure the Dodgers didn’t want Kemp to test free agency especially if he has a great 2012. This deal is not without risk especially considering Kemp is coming off a career year and was dreadful in 2010 – there are track record issues. 

Pitching, as usual, will be the strength of the Dodgers team. All five members of the projected starting rotation started at least 28 games last season. 2011’s NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw is the anchor of the rotation. Last season Kershaw went to a new level posting 21 W, 248 K, and a 2.28 ERA. Kershaw was absolutely brilliant pushing himself into the top-tier of starting pitchers at the age of 23. Behind Kershaw will be right-hander Chad Billingsley who has not lived up to his potential thus far in his career. Billingsley is a good pitcher but was expected to be an ace or strong #2 starter. He is coming off a disappointing year after being a solid starter from 2008-2010; he will be looking to return to form. The final three spots in the rotation are held by veterans. Ted Lilly figures in at the three spot and will be looking to improve as well by reducing the number of home runs (28) and stolen bases (35) he surrendered in 2011. The Dodgers signed righty Aaron Harang and lefty Chris Capuano during the offseason, both to two-year deals with an option for a third year. Neither pitcher was particularly good last season and both have missed significant time with injuries in past years. They also have a chance to be average Major League starting pitchers when healthy, which would help. Kershaw should continue to be excellent and the three veterans at the back should be serviceable. Billingsley is the key.

The Dodgers bullpen mostly returns from 2011. At the back-end of the pen are Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen. Guerra is set to close after being solid in the role last season saving 21 in 23 chances. If Guerra struggles it won’t take long for people to clamor for Jansen to take over the role (**). Jansen has the much bigger skill set and has dominant stuff as shown by his 16.1 K/9 rate and an opponent’s batting average of .158. Los Angeles lost former standouts Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo to free agency. Broxton and Kuo were the team’s former dynamic duo for the 8th and 9th innings but spent a lot of time on the disabled list last season. Scott Elbert steps in as the lone southpaw in the pen. The bullpen also features three veteran right-handed pitchers in Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, and Todd Coffey. The bullpen should do fine this season.

(**) People are already clamoring.

Los Angeles probably doesn’t have enough talent to compete for the division title. The team features two of the best in the game in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw but has question marks throughout the rest of the club; it will be difficult for Kemp and Kershaw to outperform last season. The Dodgers need several players to progress and/or have rebound seasons if the team is going to be in a position to win enough games to be in contention. With an ownership change on the horizon, there is hope for the future in Los Angeles.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Chris Capuano (LHP) – free agent
• Aaron Harang (RHP) – free agent
• Mark Ellis (MIF) – free agent
• Jerry Hairston Jr. (IF/OF) – free agent
• Todd Coffey (RHP) – free agent
• Adam Kennedy (IF) – free agent
• Matt Treanor (C) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Hiroki Kuroda (RHP) – signed with New York Yankees
• Jamey Carroll (IF) – signed with Minnesota Twins
• Hong-Chih Kuo (LHP) – signed with Seattle Mariners
• Jonathan Broxton (RHP) – signed with Kansas City Royals
• Casey Blake (CIF) – signed with Colorado Rockies
• Rod Barajas (C) – signed with Pittsburgh Pirates
• Aaron Miles (IF) – unsigned
• Vicente Padilla (RHP) – signed with Boston Red Sox
• Jon Garland (RHP) – unsigned
• Dana Eveland (LHP) – traded to Baltimore Orioles
• Eugenio Valez (IF/OF) – signed with St. Louis Cardinals

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Dee Gordon – SS

2. Mark Ellis – 2B

3. Matt Kemp – SS

4. Andre Ethier – RF

5. Juan Rivera – LF

6. James Loney – 1B

7. Juan Uribe – 3B

8. A.J. Ellis – C

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Clayton Kershaw – LH

2. Chad Billingsley – RH

3. Ted Lilly – LH

4. Aaron Harang – RH

5. Chris Capuano – LH

Projected Bullpen:

• Javy Guerra – RH
• Kenley Jansen – RH
• Matt Guerrier – RH
• Scott Elbert – LH
• Mike MacDougal – RH
• Todd Coffey – RH
• Ramon Troncoso – RH

Projected Bench:

• Matt Treanor – C
• Adam Kennedy – IF
• Jerry Sands – 1B/OF
• Jerry Hairston – IF/OF
• Tony Gwynn Jr. – OF

Projected Disabled List (start of the season):

• Blake Hawksworth – RHP
• Rubby De La Rosa – RHP

Variables:

• Finances – The Dodgers payroll dropped almost $30 million from 2011 to 2012. A new owner will be in place early in the season. Presumably more money will be available to bring in players and improve the organization overall. That may or may not have a big effect on the team this season.
• Billingsley – He is capable of being a solid #2 starter but has been wildly inconsistent during his career and is coming off a poor season.
• Ethier/Loney – Both players need to step up if the Dodgers are going to be successful. Ethier is talented but needs to be an even bigger offensive force considering he is easily the third best player on the team. Loney also needs to produce more offensively but he is entering he-is-what-he-is territory.
• Regression – I’m not saying Kemp and Kershaw are going to have bad seasons but they would be hard pressed to be better than they were last season. In 2011 they both had ridiculous years, yet the team had to rally to finish over .500.
• Gordon – It will be his first full season so it will be interesting to see how he handles it. He can’t hit for power and doesn’t get on base a lot. He’s really going to have to hit and be a nuisance on the bases to justify hitting leadoff. Playing a solid shortstop would help too.
• Opportunity – With players like Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, and Juan Uribe starting there are going to be opportunities for other players such as Jerry Sands (for Rivera or a left-handed bat) to step in at times. 
• Closer situation – Guerra is the closer. He also only has one year of Major League experience. Kenley Jansen has all the makings of a closer and only has two years of big league experience. Each player is capable but their roles may be altered and teams may figure them out to an extent.

Fantasy Implications:

• Fantasy baseball’s MVP last season may have been Matt Kemp considering where he was drafted and the numbers he put up (as good if not better than every other player). This season Kemp is a top three overall pick. He should be a force in the five standard categories (AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB). 30+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases may become the norm for him. I only caution not to pay for last season’s production.
• 2011 National League Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is a top three starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. Last season he dominated in all fantasy categories; at the age of 24 he should be getting better – even if his numbers aren’t quite as good. You’ll likely have to pick him in the second round if you want him. Draft with confidence.
• Dee Gordon pre-draft rankings on Yahoo! and ESPN are far apart. Yahoo! has him ranked higher as the eighth overall shortstop, 96th overall player. ESPN has him as the 13th shortstop, 133rd overall player. I fall more into the ESPN camp. Gordon will do next to nothing in the HR/RBI categories. He should score a decent amount of runs. I worry about the batting average dropping below .285. If you draft Gordon it will be for his speed as he should be among the league leaders in stolen bases. In terms of fantasy baseball he’s a one category player at a position that lacks depth. If you believe he’ll hit for average, will get on base more than last season and the batters hitting behind him are going to have better years, than he’s right for you.
• Andre Ethier is a decent fantasy outfielder. He has the ability to contribute in four categories (not stolen bases) and is entering free agency. Don’t expect huge numbers but as a fourth outfielder he should fit in fine.
• The Dodgers have minimal fantasy value at best from the catcher, first base, second base, and third base positions. James Loney may find some value but a first basemen that doesn’t hit for power has to be excellent in other categories.
• One fantasy-relevant Dodgers player I won’t target much is Ted Lilly. He’s 36 years old and we’re getting close a drop off year, I feel. Lilly typically has a low WHIP and is serviceable in other categories though I wouldn’t count on too many wins (though, again, wins are hard to predict).
• As a starting pitcher being taken 60+ I think Chad Billingsley has very good value. Sure, he’s coming off the worst season of his career and some of his numbers are trending the wrong way. But as a 6th or 7th starting pitcher on a fantasy team he has great upside. You won’t have to invest much to get him so if he shows that 2012 is going to be similar to 2011 he’s an easy drop.
• Even though he is not the closer Kenley Jansen is ranked right near or ahead of Javy Guerra. If Jansen gets the job at some point he could be one of fantasy’s best closers. If he’s not the closer he should rack up a decent amount of innings and a ton of strikeouts.
• Javy Guerra has the closer job. I’d take him ahead of Jansen because of that. The leash will probably be short because of Jansen’s skills and Guerra’s lack of track record at the big league level. Guerra is currently undervalued over fear that he won’t hold onto the job.