Competing in the American League East is as tough as it gets in Major League Baseball. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have the two highest payrolls in the league and are in contention each year. From 2008 on the Tampa Bay Rays have been on the same winning level with New York and Boston making the playoffs three of the last four seasons. It’s been difficult for the Toronto Blue Jays to join the top-tier of the division. Toronto finds itself in a tier of its own in the division. Not good enough to compete with the three top teams, but not nearly bad enough to be in the same class as the Baltimore Orioles. The organization is heading in the right direction though. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has made several favorable moves since taking over in 2009. With some development and a few key moves the team will be ready to contend.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The Blue Jays starting lineup is mostly built from the outside. Only three of the nine projected starters are homegrown (Lind, Thames, and Arencibia). Beside just making solid, sensibly moves the organization’s philosophy seems to be to buy low. The team traded for Jose Bautista (under former GM J.P. Ricciardi) when his value couldn’t have been much lower. The last two seasons Bautista has put up monster numbers on offense including OPS of .995 and 1.056 to go along with 97 home runs. The team traded for shortstop Yunel Escobar and center fielder Colby Rasmus near the trade deadline the last two seasons when their former teams grew tired of them (*). Escobar and Rasmus are both talented players. Escobar has shown it more on the field while Rasmus is still trying to find his way; Rasmus has a high ceiling. Another player Toronto brought in from the outside is third basemen Brett Lawrie, acquired in a trade for pitcher Shaun Marcum, who went on a tear in his 43 games in the Major Leagues last season. Lawrie had nine home runs and seven stolen bases to go with a .953 OPS. Forty-three games is a really small sample but the 22-year old Lawrie showed he has the potential to be a great player. 2012 will be his first full season in the Major Leagues. Adam Lind absolutely needs to improve this season. Lind has hit for power in his career but has been atrocious the last two seasons when it comes to getting on base; his on-base percentage (OBP) in 2010 and 2011 was .287 and .295 (**). He plays a premium offensive position and hits in the middle of the lineup. He needs to produce more. Even with improvements needed on the offensive end the Blue Jays still feature a potent lineup. Last season the team was sixth in runs scored. With a dynamic bat in the middle of the lineup in Jose Bautista and several talented players around him Toronto should be able to score this season.

(*) It worked out for their former teams too. Escobar’s former team, the Atlanta Braves, went to the playoffs in 2010. And the St. Louis Cardinals, well, they won the World Series in 2011.

(**) The Jays need other players to improve in the OBP department. Four starters last season were well below average in OBP (average OBP is .320): J.P. Arencibia (.282), Adam Lind (.295), Colby Rasmus (.298) and Kelly Johnson (.304). 

The Blue Jays have issues in the starting rotation. At the top are capable, above average pitchers Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. Neither pitcher has shown to be an ace but both have pitched well over the last couple seasons and have room for improvement. Morrow has stuff and good advanced numbers but lacks results. After Romero and Morrow the rotation has holes. Brett Cecil is slated for the third starting spot. He was good in 2010 but was only able to make 20 ineffective starts last season. Considering the other options for the rotation, Toronto is likely looking for Cecil to at least be a stabilizing force. The fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are no guarantees but are projected to go to Henderson Alvarez and Dustin McGowan. The soon-to-be 22-year old Alvarez made 10 starts last season and was effective with a good walk rate and ERA. Still, he is young, inexperienced, and unproven. McGowan is still trying to come back from several injuries over the last few years. He made 19 starts in the 2008 season, didn’t pitch at all in 2009 and 2010, then finally came back for five late season starts in 2011. Injuries and a long time away from the game are big concerns with McGowan. Toronto’s potential issues in the rotation means that depth is a necessity. Former top-prospect Kyle Drabek (***), versatile Carlos Villanueva, and the injured Jesse Litsch will likely all factor in at some point during the season. Starting pitching is the obvious weak link for the Toronto Blue Jays as the team will try to improve from the league’s 25th ranked runs against mark from last season.

(***) At the time of the trade, Drabek was the big prize Toronto got in return for Roy Halladay. He has struggled to say the least in his brief stint in the Major Leagues. 

The Blue Jays have a retooled bullpen. Four of the top five relievers were acquired in the offseason. Sergio Santos came over in a trade from the Chicago White Sox and should step in as the closer. He may have some competition from former Cincinnati Reds closer Francisco Cordero who signed as a free agent. Jason Frasor was on the Blue Jays last season before being traded to the White Sox before being traded back to the Blue Jays in the offseason. Veteran left-handed pitcher Darren Oliver signed as a free agent. Casey Janssen, coming off a nice season, is the lone returner among the top five options in the pen. The bullpen should be better with the additions made in the offseason. Santos has the potential to be a top-tier closer. Cordero has years of experience as a closer. In Frasor and Janssen the team has two decent middle relief/setup options and even though he is old, Oliver has been good the last few seasons. Another left-hander Luis Perez and long reliever Carlos Villanueva fill out the pen.

The Toronto Blue Jays should be an improved team in 2012 but are still moves away from being contenders for the division. The team possesses a high run scoring offense with room for improvement. Starting pitching, particularly in the three through five spots is the biggest concern for the team. The bullpen features mostly new additions and should keep the team in games late. In 2012, it would be a bit of a surprise if the Blue Jays finished somewhere other than fourth place in the AL East for the fifth consecutive season.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Sergio Santos (RHP) – trade with Chicago White Sox
• Francisco Cordero (RHP) – free agent
• Ben Francisco (OF) – trade with Philadelphia Phillies
• Darren Oliver (LHP) – free agent
• Jason Frasor (RHP) – trade with Chicago White Sox
• Jeff Mathis (C) – trade with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Omar Vizquel (IF) – free agent
• Luis Valbuena (IF/OF) – trade with Cleveland Indians

Subtractions:

• Frank Francisco (RHP) – signed with New York Mets
• Jose Molina (C) – signed with Tampa Bay Rays
• Jon Rauch (RHP) – signed with New York Mets
• Shawn Camp (RHP) – signed with Seattle Mariners
• Jayson Nix (IF/OF) – signed with New York Yankees
• Mark Teahen (IF/OF) – signed with Washington Nationals

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Yunel Escobar – SS

2. Kelly Johnson – 2B

3. Jose Bautista – RF

4. Adam Lind – 1B

5. Edwin Encarnacion – DH

6. Colby Rasmus – CF

7. Brett Lawrie – 3B

8. Eric Thames – LF

9. J.P. Arencibia – C

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Ricky Romero – LH

2. Brandon Morrow – RH

3. Brett Cecil – LH

4. Henderson Alvarez – RH

5. Dustin McGowan – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Sergio Santos – RH
• Francisco Cordero -RH
• Casey Janssen – RH
• Jason Frasor – RH
• Darren Oliver – LH
• Luis Perez – RH
• Carlos Villanueva – RH

Projected Bench:

• Jeff Mathis – C
• Omar Vizquel – IF
• Rajai Davis – OF
• Ben Francisco – OF

Projected Disabled List (start of the season):

• Jesse Litsch – RHP

Variables:

• Starting rotation 3-5 – Cecil could be a stabilizing force but there are questions in the back of the rotation and not much can be counted on. This is the weakest area for the team.
• Lawrie’s first full season – Lawrie came up last season and was great in 43 games. In his first full season he will likely have to make adjustments. The talent is certainly there but there is a lack of track record at the big league level.
• Rasmus – Has a lot of talent but had trouble fitting in St. Louis and was traded. It’s time for Rasmus to start showing his talent on the field.
• Lind – Position and place in the lineup mean he needs to be an offensive weapon. He has struggled the last two seasons.
• Establishing bullpen – The bullpen should be pretty good but it may take some time to establish roles. With two closers there may be calls for a switch in the role if Santos struggles.

Fantasy Implications:

• Jose Bautista is a top five pre-ranked player in fantasy baseball. Bautista has put up monstrous R/HR/RBI totals the last two seasons and hit over .300 last season. I doubt Bautista will hit that well in the average department this season; I expect him to hit somewhere in the .260s or .270s. He’ll also help with near double digit steals. Having 3B and OF eligibility helps too.
• One player that people apparently believe in a lot this season is Brett Lawrie (3B). His pre-rank is set in the middle of the fifth round. This is a player with immense talent but less than 50 games of experience. I don’t expect him to be bad but I will likely pass on him and play it a little safe. Lawrie can contribute in all categories.
• Starting pitcher Ricky Romero is probably a better fantasy pitcher than real life pitcher. He is ranked as a mid-20s starting pitcher and put up solid numbers in all fantasy categories last season. I think his numbers may dip a bit this season so someone will likely pick him before I’d think about it.
• Brandon Morrow is the reverse of Romero – a better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher. Morrow will strikeout a lot of batters but his other fantasy numbers have shown to be unimpressive.
• I’m not too worried about Francisco Cordero taking saves away from Sergio Santos. Santos will be a closer I will target in fantasy baseball because I believe he will hold on to the job. Even if he doesn’t he’ll put up big strikeout numbers for a reliever. He is prone to the big inning though.
• First basemen Adam Lind is mostly intriguing because he’s expected to hit in the middle of the lineup. He might be able to get decent R and RBI totals while hitting over 20 home runs. I wouldn’t count on Lind for much considering his recent struggles.
• Kelly Johnson is being drafted as a backup second basemen in most leagues. His average likely won’t be very good but he will put up around 20 home runs to go with double digit steals. If he’s able to stick in the top part of the lineup his run total should see a boost. 
• J.P. Arencibia will be drafted as a starting catcher in fantasy baseball. He can hit for power and should put up around 20 home runs. He may have a decent RBI total too. He’ll probably be brutal in the average department as he only hit .219 a year ago. Like most catchers he doesn’t run.
• Center fielder Colby Rasmus is ranked outside the top 50 among outfielders. He has talent but hasn’t been able to put anything together yet. You may not believe he’ll be a star but if you think he’ll figure it out a little bit, he has value. Drafting him as a fifth outfielder is a decent gamble.
• Edwin Encarnacion is a decent offensive weapon who is expected to be the team’s DH. He has first base and third base eligibility giving him a lot more value than he would have otherwise.
• At the shortstop position Yunel Escobar probably won’t hurt you in any particular category but he doesn’t really help that much either. He doesn’t hit for big power or steal many bases. There’s no need to invest much in Escobar in fantasy baseball.