Coming into 2011 the Colorado Rockies were a trendy pick for a playoff spot (or at least to compete for one). The Rockies certainly didn’t live up to expectations as the team struggled, finishing in fourth place in the National League West, 16 games below .500. The front office made a lot of moves during the offseason; the team will be counting on several new players in 2012. Still, the team will be led by a core group of players from last season. The Rockies will be looking to move forward from 2011 by rebounding this season.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

Injuries were a major factor for the Rockies’ disappointing 2011. Only three position players, Ty Wigginton, Troy Tulowitzki, and Seth Smith, appeared in 130 or more games. Two of those players (hint: not Troy Tulowitzki) are no longer with the team. Obviously, the club hopes its injury fortunes are better this season. Offensively, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez take the lead. Tulowitzki, for my money, is the best all around shortstop in the game – and one of baseball’s best players. Gonzalez had a monster breakout season in 2010 but was one of the Rockies who battled injuries last year. He has shown over the last two seasons to be one of the best outfield bats in the game. Todd Helton is up there in age (he’ll turn 39 later in the season) but is coming off a decent season. He’ll be in the middle of the Rockies lineup as he has been for so many years. The only other returning starter from last year is center fielder Dexter Fowler. He is coming into his fourth full season and has improved each year thus far (*). The Rockies add four veterans to their starting lineup in 2012, Marco Scutaro (2B), Michael Cuddyer (RF), Casey Blake (3B) and Ramon Hernandez (C) (**). Each of these players is at least 33 and on the backside of his career. Each player can also help out the team when healthy. In 2012, the Rockies hope Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are able to stay on the field; if they do, they should form one of the most dynamic 3-4 combos in the big leagues. The Rockies will be looking for their many veterans to stay healthy as well and essentially do what they have done in the past.

(*) I doubt Fowler will be an all-star type player but he may be able to be an above average starter if he reaches his ceiling.

(**) I think the Rockies really scored with the Scutaro trade. He is an above average starter and can play multiple positions. The price was not that high to acquire him. The signings of Blake and Hernandez are fine. Blake on a one-year deal (difficult to criticize one year deals of any sort) and Hernandez on a two-year contract for *only* (in baseball terms) $6.4 million. I do, though, believe the Rockies overpaid for Cuddyer. He is a slightly above average regular coming off the second-best statistical season of his career. He turns 33 this month and will be paid $10.5 million a season for the next three years.

The Rockies starting rotation has a new look. Only one returning starter, Jhoulys Chacin, had more than 14 starts for the club last season. That new look may be a good thing as the Rockies finished fourth from the bottom last season in runs against. Chacin, 24, is entering his third full season. He should establish himself as an above average starting pitcher this season. One of the better moves in the offseason (because of the price) was the trade for Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie was essentially the ace for the Orioles the last number of seasons and was an average major league starter in the AL East. He’s a 200-inning, 30+ starts pitcher. He’s not a great pitcher by any stretch, but he’s a decent guy to have in your rotation (***). The three remaining spots in the rotation will be comprised of some combination of Juan Nicasio, Guillermo Moscoso, Tyler Chatwood, Alex White and Drew Pomeranz. Those five pitchers have 73 career major league starts combined. Not a single one was in a major league rotation past last season. The 3-5 starters for the Rockies are going to be highly inexperienced (****).

(***) The Orioles make some odd moves.

(****) The rotation could be boosted if/when Jorge De La Rosa returns from Tommy John surgery, which he had last June.

The Rockies dealt closer Huston Street in the offseason but every member of the projected bullpen returns. Rafael Betancourt, who turns 37 this season, will have the closer job for the first time in his career. Matt Belisle has been one of the better setup men over the past two seasons. Rex Brothers was good last season and had a high strikeout rate (13.06 K/9). Colorado is probably hoping the rest of the pen will be serviceable.

The Colorado Rockies could conceivably finish anywhere in the NL West standings. They have two all-star caliber position players and a group of veterans behind them. The rotation should be adequate in the first two spots but is essentially a complete unknown after that. Health will factor in more for the Rockies than other teams because of last season’s issues along with the age and track record of some of their players. It’s somewhat of an oddly constructed team. In 2012 the Rockies could go any way. The team could make the playoffs or could conceivably look like an organization in trouble with injuries, veterans that are too far over the hill and starting pitchers that can’t hack it.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Michael Cuddyer (IF/OF) – free agent
• Jeremy Guthrie (RHP) – trade with Colorado Rockies
• Marco Scutaro (IF) – trade with Boston Red Sox
• Ramon Hernandez (C) – free agent
• Guillermo Moscoso (RHP) – trade with Oakland Athletics
• Tyler Chatwood (RHP) – trade with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Casey Blake (CIF) – free agent
• Tyler Colvin (1B/OF) – trade with Chicago Cubs
• Brandon Wood (IF) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Huston Street (RHP) – traded to San Diego Padres
• Ty Wiggington (IF/OF) – traded to Philadelphia Phillies
• Seth Smith (OF) – traded to Oakland Athletics
• Chris Iannetta (C) – traded to Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Ian Stewart (3B) – traded to Chicago Cubs
• Jason Hammel (RHP) – traded to Baltimore Orioles
• Matt Lindstrom (RHP) – traded to Baltimore Orioles
• Mark Ellis (MIF) – signed with Los Angeles Dodgers
• Kevin Millwood (RHP) – signed with Seattle Mariners
• Ryan Spilborghs (OF) – signed with Cleveland Indians
• Aaron Cook (RHP) – signed with Boston Red Sox
• Kevin Slowey (RHP) – traded to Cleveland Indians
• J.C. Romero (LHP) – signed with St. Louis Cardinals
• Brad Emaus (IF) – traded to Boston Red Sox
• Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B) – signed with Kansas City Royals

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Dexter Fowler – CF

2. Marco Scutaro – 2B

3. Carlos Gonzalez – LF

4. Troy Tulowitzki – SS

5. Todd Helton – 1B

6. Michael Cuddyer – RF

7. Casey Blake – 3B

8. Ramon Hernandez – C

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Jeremy Guthrie – RH

2. Jhoulys Chacin – RH

3. Juan Nicasio – RH

4. Guillermo Moscoso – RH

5. Tyler Chatwood – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Rafael Betancourt – RH
• Matt Belisle – RH
• Rex Brothers – LH
• Matt Reynolds – RH
• Edgmer Escalona – RH
• Josh Roenicke – RH
• Esmil Rogers – RH

Projected Bench:

• Jordan Pacheco – C/IF
• Jason Giambi – 1B
• Chris Nelson – IF
• Tyler Colvin – 1B/OF
• Eric Young Jr. – IF/OF

Projected Disabled List (Start of the season):

• Jorge De La Rosa – LHP

Variables:

• 3-5 in the rotation – can’t count on anything from the back of the rotation
• Health – The team faced a lot of injuries last season. The organization brought in several veterans which may lead to more of the same.
• Tulowitzki and Gonzalez – should be a top-tier 3-4 combo when they’re both in the lineup
• Betancourt – he should do fine, but this is his first full year as a closer and he’s getting up there in age
• Reserves – with injury questions, several veteran position players and inexperience in the rotation, organizational depth is vital

Fantasy Implications:

• I have to start with Tulowitzki. He’ll be drafted in the first round but the spot will fluctuate because of owner’s concerns (or lack thereof) with him missing games. Tulowitzki is a potent offensive player (a special player all around) and plays a premium position.
• Carlos Gonzalez, like “Tulo,” will put up great offensive numbers when he’s in the lineup (he missed 35 games last season). He’s a mid-second round selection. If you play it safe you’ll pass over him likely.
• If Michael Cuddyer qualifies at 2B, his value will shoot up quite a bit. Otherwise he’s not a player you want at 1B but has value in the outfield. Position flexibility certainly helps Cuddyer’s value. He’s pre-ranked a little higher than I would probably take him – 70 Yahoo!, 95 ESPN (overall rankings).
• Marco Scutaro doesn’t have 2B eligibility but will acquire it early in the season. He’s waiver wire material yet you could find worse out there. The fact he plays at a shallow fantasy position helps.
• Todd Helton is no longer much of a fantasy commodity. He may be a waiver wire pickup at some point during the season but his position really hurts any value he has.
• I specifically want to discuss Dexter Fowler’s Yahoo! ranking because it’s highly questionable in my estimation. Yahoo! ranks him 160th overall, 46th outfielder. By comparison, ESPN has him ranked 247th overall, 61st outfielder. I am much more in line with ESPN’s ranking. Yahoo! must be expecting a huge breakout year for Fowler. Last season he hit .266, 5 HR, 45 RBI, 84 R, and 12 SB.
• Jhoulys Chacin could have a nice season but he will likely be over-drafted. His WHIP is not good and his win totals may be low, though that is hard to predict.
• The starting rotation as a whole is problematic in fantasy. Guthrie is probably a better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher. I could see taking a chance on Drew Pomeranz because he has a high ceiling. In his case it’s about opportunity. Either way, he’s not a must-own pitcher.
• Betancourt, in the closer role, probably has a wide range of rankings because he was good statistically last season but at the same time hasn’t held the job for any extended period of time.