The San Diego Padres had a rough 2011 finishing last in the NL West, 20 games below .500. Over the offseason, the Padres lost two of the most recognizable players on the team. Closer Heath Bell signed as a free agent with the Miami Marlins and the club traded ace Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds. Losing Bell helped save the team long-term salary obligations. The loss of both players leaves the star starved Padres with fewer well-known names than before. San Diego has a low payroll and few players likely to excite fans or help in the win column.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The San Diego Padres are deficient on offense. In 2011, the Padres were third worst in runs scored. The way San Diego’s home field, Petco Park, is built plays into it but the team does not possess much offensive prowess. Last season, the only player on the roster that made it to double digits in home runs was Ryan Ludwick who was traded at the deadline. That’s probably a reason why the Padres traded for Carlos Quentin in the offseason. In each of Quentin’s seasons with the Chicago White Sox, he hit at least 20 home runs (*). Quentin will surely hit in the middle of the lineup. Hoping to add more offense the Padres also brought in first base prospect Yonder Alonso in the trade that sent Latos to Cincinnati. Alonso got some time with the Reds last season and will be competing for the starting job this spring. The biggest bright spot for the Padres last season was the play of then newcomer, center fielder Cameron Maybin. The former first round pick played in more than half of the season’s games (137 to be exact) for the first time in his career and was solid. He turns 25 right before this season begins and will be looking to build on 2011. Third basemen Chase Headley was having an underrated season last year until a fractured finger landed him in the disabled list in August. The rest of the Padres starting lineup will likely struggle to make a big impact offensively. With imported offense, progression and health, the Padres will look to improve offensively. Even if most of everything goes right for San Diego’s offense, it will still likely have a hard time generating a lot of runs. There are some interesting pieces but no big-impact stars.

(*) Although U.S. Cellular Field (the White Sox home) ranks as one of the most home run prone parks in the Major Leagues each season while Petco is usually towards the bottom.

Over the offseason the Padres lost Mat Latos (trade), Aaron Harang (free agency) and Wade LeBlanc (trade) meaning that 45% of the team’s starts won’t be returning. Latos, easily the ace of the staff, will certainly be missed. There is no clear starter to step in his place though Cory Luebke was solid and Tim Stauffer was OK last season. Luebke may be primed for a breakout. Edinson Volquez, who looked to be the real deal in 2008 but hasn’t since, was sent over in the Latos deal. The last two members of the projected rotation are Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley. In recent history the Padres have had effective pitching. Last season the team ranked fourth in runs against. Even though the rotation loses its ace, it will still likely be effective. Again, Petco Park helps a lot and can make home runs in other parks, outs. This is not a great starting rotation but it will probably pitch acceptably.

For the first time in three seasons Heath Bell won’t be the closer for the San Diego Padres. Bell signed with the Miami Marlins in the offseason. To offset the loss of Bell, San Diego dealt for Huston Street from the Colorado Rockies. Street, when healthy, can be an above average closer. The Padres usually boast one of the best bullpens in the Major Leagues. Even without Bell I see that continuing. Luke Gregerson and offseason addition Andrew Cashner fit in nicely in setup roles. The rest of the projected bullpen will probably fit in adequately over the season. The Padres typically don’t struggle finding effective pitching.

The organization’s payroll will probably be between $50-$55 million (not high). The highest paid players on the roster are newcomers Street and Quentin; both make under $8 million in 2012. Street’s deal can end after this year (via buyout) and Quentin agreed to a deal, avoiding arbitration. Much of the Padres roster is similar. The next two highest paid players, shortstop Jason Bartlett and second basemen Orlando Hudson, also have buyouts for 2013 (**). Most of the other players on the roster are in the arbitration eligible stage. The Padres will have flexibility moving forward. The payroll is not high, the organization does not have long term obligations and the majority of the players will not command big money. San Diego will be able to keep costs down if it chooses to do so (***) (****).

(**) I would be shocked if either option was picked up. 

(***) The Padres reportedly want to extend Cameron Maybin’s contract. With the year he had and what he is projected to do, he will get a decent sized deal by Padres standards.

(****) San Diego has one of the top ranking farm systems. Bringing up prospects will further keep costs down. 

It’s difficult to see ways in which the Padres are able to compete for a playoff spot. The biggest problem is simply the lack of impact players. There is not one player on the entire pitching staff that has consistently proven to be well above average. What the starting lineup has in nice pieces it lacks in lethal bats. Top to bottom there isn’t enough pop in that lineup. The plan for the organization is probably to stand pat this season (maybe trade some veterans) and have options for the future.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Carlos Quentin (OF) – trade with White Sox
• Edinson Volquez (RHP) – trade with Cincinnati Reds
• Huston Street (RHP) – trade with Colorado Rockies
• Yonder Alonso (1B) – trade with Cincinnati Reds
• Andrew Cashner (RHP) – trade with Chicago Cubs
• John Baker (C) – trade with Miami Marlins
• Mark Kotsay (1B/OF) – free agent
• Micah Owings (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Heath Bell (RHP) – signed with Miami Marlins
• Mat Latos (RHP) – trade with Cincinnati Reds
• Anthony Rizzo (1B) – trade with Chicago Cubs
• Aaron Harang (RHP) – signed with Los Angeles Dodgers
• Brad Hawpe (OF) – signed with Texas Rangers
• Chad Qualls (RHP) – signed with Philadelphia Phillies
• Wade LeBlanc (LHP) – trade with Miami Marlins

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Will Venable – LF

2. Cameron Maybin – CF

3. Chase Headley – 3B

4. Carlos Quentin – RF

5. Yonder Alonso – 1B

6. Nick Hundley – C

7. Orlando Hudson – 2B

8. Jason Bartlett – SS

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Tim Stauffer – RH

2. Cory Luebke – LH

3. Edinson Volquez – RH

4. Clayton Richard – LH

5. Dustin Moseley – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Huston Street – RH
• Luke Gregerson – RH
• Andrew Cashner – RH
• Joe Thatcher – LH
• Ernesto Frieri – RH
• Josh Spence – LH
• Micah Owings – RH

Projected Bench:

• John Baker – C
• Jesus Guzman – INF/OF
• Mark Kotsay – 1B/OF
• Logan Forsythe – INF
• Chris Denorfia – OF

Variables:

• Offensive production – There will be at least one (Quentin) possibly two (Alonso) new bats in the middle of the lineup. Cameron Maybin may improve from last year and if Chase Headley is healthy for the whole season he should help. The offense may improve from last season, but how significant will that change be will be telling.
• Starting pitching – The starting staff does not feature proven players. With that being the case the effectiveness of the rotation could swing any number of ways.
• The closer – In general, I believe closers are overvalued. Heath Bell was among the best closers in the game the last three seasons but Huston Street (if healthy) can fill it just fine. Still, Street could struggle or more likely get hurt forcing someone else into the role.

Fantasy Implications:

• On the whole, the San Diego Padres do not factor in all that much in fantasy baseball. The top ranking fantasy hitter for the club is Cameron Maybin at 135 overall by Yahoo! and 143 by ESPN. Cory Luebke is the top pitcher; he is ranked 125 overall by Yahoo! and 130 by ESPN. Following the rankings it could be somewhere in the 12th or 13th round before a Padres player is taken.
• The Padres infield is very weak in fantasy terms. The only player really worth considering is third basemen Chase Headley. He’s not ranked as a starter in fantasy (18 Yahoo!, 19 ESPN) but he could be a decent contributor if he is healthy. He’ll be a nice backup if your third basemen goes down and in my opinion will probably be worth a roster spot.
• Maybin, rightfully so, is the top ranking offensive player for the Padres. He may be worth drafting a little earlier than his pre-draft ranking because he has a relatively good chance of improving on last season’s numbers. At the very least, if he’s in the lineup he will get stolen bases for you.
• The other outfielder to consider is Carlos Quentin whose best asset is his power which will be hurt with the move to Petco Park.
• It seems fantasy baseball in general is looking for a breakout from Cory Luebke. He is ranked 33 by Yahoo! and 38 by ESPN among starting pitchers. Don’t get me wrong, I like Luebke as a player (he was very good once he moved to the rotation last season) but he only has 20 career starts. If you believe in him you may be rewarded and if you play it safe he won’t end up on your team.
• Starting pitchers Tim Stauffer and Edinson Volquez will hover around 50% ownership in standard leagues. You may want to keep an eye on them but I wouldn’t expect anything earth shattering.
• For Huston Street it’s all about health. If healthy he could be a steal. Moving from Coors Field to Petco Park will also help his value. If you wait on closers he may be there to help that drafting philosophy.
• In a super deep league or NL only Nick Hundley borders on interesting because he will hit for power. He also gets injured often.