To be frank, the Baltimore Orioles are a mess. Whether it’s a puzzling trade or having your scouts banned from a country/having a contract voided it’s difficult to feel optimistic in Baltimore. Life in the AL East certainly doesn’t make things easier. The Orioles seem to be an organization that is in need of a vision.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The problem for Baltimore is that the current roster does not give them a good chance to compete in the AL East, the best division in Major League Baseball. The organization is also lacking young players that are ready to make an impact at the major league level. In my opinion, it looks like it’s time for the Orioles to rebuild. It would be tough to do with the contracts the organization has on the books. Nick Markakis (RF) is signed for three years after this season and will be paid 15+ million each season. Brian Roberts (2B) will be paid $10 million in the last year of his deal in 2013. It would be difficult to find a team for either of those players. J.J. Hardy (SS) was signed to an extension during the middle of last season for 3 years at $7 million base salary a year. When healthy all three players are good but again they do not give the team a chance to compete in the division. Worse yet, the Orioles may be hamstrung with their contracts. In order to get prospects, the Orioles may have to trade CF Adam Jones. It’s difficult to see the path Baltimore has been on resulting in success.

The Orioles’ starting lineup is not necessarily bad. Markakis, Jones, and young catcher Matt Wieters are solid. J.J. Hardy had a very nice 2011 and if Brian Roberts can ever be on the field consistently, he can make big contributions. Roberts, Hardy, Markakis, Jones and Wieters as the first five hitters in a lineup can put a team in a good position to win games. The final four spots in the lineup are problematic with three consecutive strikeout machines in 3B Mark Reynolds, DH Wilson Betemit and 1B Chris Davis with LF Endy Chavez rounding it out. The Orioles’ lineup doesn’t stack up to powerhouses like the Yankees or Red Sox but it is capable.

The Orioles have a bunch of options for the starting rotation. Unfortunately, few of them are especially appealing for 2012. This is the biggest problem for the roster in 2012 and beyond. In 2011 the Orioles gave up the most runs in Major League Baseball, 56 more than any other team. Baltimore had only three starting pitchers that pitched at least 100 innings. The organization unloaded Jeremy Guthrie in the offseason (*) for SP Jason Hammel and RP Matt Lindstrom from the Colorado Rockies leaving them without their most reliable starting pitcher. This season Zach Britton, a highly regarded young lefty, will probably step in as the number one starter. Hammel and Jake Arrieta will likely fill two of the four remaining spots. Free agent signs Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada will be vying for spots along with Tommy Hunter and former fourth overall draft pick Brian Matusz who struggled all of 2011. There could be at least three more starters in the mix. There are plenty of options but none of the starters are proven. The starting rotation could have a lot of moving parts in 2012 as the organization searches for long term solutions.

(*) Guthrie was probably the team’s best starter last season. He was the only pitcher to throw over 155 innings (203 2/3 innings) and he would have been their Opening Day starter in 2012.

While not littered with well-known names, the bullpen could fare OK in 2012. Jim Johnson took over the closer role after Kevin Gregg struggled and pitched well last season. Newcomer Matt Lindstrom will likely fill a setup role. The Orioles pen has hard throwers. While the relief corps probably will not be stellar it has the potential to perform adequately.

If I was looking at the safest bets for where teams will finish in the standings in 2012, the Baltimore Orioles would be among the safest bets as I do not see many scenarios where the team does not finish in last place in the AL East. Baltimore has several holes and is not constructed to fill them in 2012. This is an organization that has to look toward building for the future.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Wilson Betemit (3B/DH) – free agent
• Endy Chavez (OF) – free agent
• Jason Hammel (RHP) – trade with Colorado Rockies
• Wei-Yin Chen (LHP) – free agent
• Tsuyoshi Wada (RHP) – free agent
• Matt Lindstrom (RHP) – trade with Colorado Rockies
• Luis Ayala (RHP) – free agent

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Brian Roberts – 2B

2. J.J. Hardy – SS

3. Nick Markakis – RF

4. Adam Jones – CF

5. Matt Wieters – C

6. Mark Reynolds – 3B

7. Wilson Betemit – DH

8. Chris Davis – 1B

9. Endy Chavez – LF

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Zach Britton – LH

2. Tommy Hunter – RH

3. Jake Arrieta – RH

4. Wei-Yin Chen – LH

5. Jason Hammel – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Jim Johnson – RH
• Matt Lindstrom – RH
• Kevin Gregg – RH
• Pedro Strop – RH
• Troy Patton – LH
• Luis Ayala – RH
• Alfredo Simon – RH

Projected Bench:

• Taylor Teagarden – C
• Robert Andino – IF
• Ryan Flaherty – IF/OF
• Nolan Reimold – OF

Variables:

• Starting rotation – Several candidates, no sure things. Baltimore will attempt to identify its top five options and go into the season hoping they can deliver.
• Flexibility – It does not seem that the Orioles have much roster flexibility which the organization desperately needs to make moves for the future. Management may get creative and find ways to obtain prospects and/or free up money but that would likely cost them their best position players in the process.

Fantasy Implications:

• Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick in the 2007 draft, is a top five or six catcher in fantasy baseball. In 2011, Wieters was 4th in runs, 5th in home runs and 8th in RBIs among catchers. No Oriole will be taken higher at their respective position.
• OF Adam Jones and SS J.J. Hardy will both likely be taken as starters at their positions. Jones contributes adequately across the board while Hardy will provide power to a position that lacks it (Hardy was tied with Troy Tulowitzki for the most homeruns at SS with 30).
• OF Nick Markakis used to be taken as a second outfielder for a lot of teams. Those times have passed, but Markakis is still a player that should be owned in virtually all fantasy leagues. He is a fourth outfielder type in fantasy.
• Mark Reynolds qualifies at both 3B and 1B but will be used at 3B, the much shallower position. As a third basemen, Reynolds may start for teams looking for power later in the draft. In deeper leagues with twelve or more teams, Reynolds is “startable.” You know what you are getting in Reynolds, a player that will hit home runs and decimate your batting average.
• As mentioned previously, the Orioles do no possess intriguing starting pitchers. If I was going to take a chance on any of them, it would be Zach Britton. He has the most promise of any starter and performed acceptably in 2011. That said, he is a player to watch once the season starts, not someone to draft.
• The closer job will likely go to Jim Johnson to start the season but Matt Lindstrom may put pressure on Johnson. Either way you will likely be able to find cheap saves with whoever ends up as closer.