2011’s last place finish, the team’s sixth such finish in the last eight seasons, made it ten straight seasons since the Seattle Mariners made the playoffs. Looking at what the other teams in the AL West are doing, it certainly looks like that stretch of missing the playoffs will continue for at least one more year. The Mariners are an organization looking and building beyond 2012.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

The 2011 version of the Seattle Mariners featured the most anemic offense (in terms of runs scored) in MLB. The lack of talent on the roster had the most reason for that but some massive disappointments were mixed in. Ichiro Suzuki had a dramatic drop off. His on-base percentage dropped nearly 50 points while his slugging percentage almost dropped 60 points. He went from 4.5 WAR (very good) in 2010 to 0.2 (horrendous) in 2011. Ichiro is 38 years old but I see him playing more like he did in 2010 than 2011. Then there’s Chone Figgins who posted a .188/.241/.243 (AVG/OBP/SLG) (!!!). It takes a lot for a player making $9 million for a team like the Mariners to be benched, but that’s how bad Figgins was. Given his contract I have to think the Mariners will give him every chance to bounce back and I expect him to do so at least somewhat (*). The 2012 version of the offense should be improved. A big part of Seattle’s rebuilding process is centered on second basemen Dustin Ackley (23 years old) and off-season acquisition Jesus Montero (22 years old). The organization has to be hoping that both will be cornerstone type players. It would also help a lot if former top prospect 1B Justin Smoak is able to do more than he has so far in his short career (**). The Mariners severely lack power at the plate, but it is possible for some of the younger players to help in that respect. Although it should be better, the Mariners offense will still struggle in all likelihood.

(*) Mainly because it’s hard to be worse.

(**) Smoak was the centerpiece in the trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers. Obviously, he was highly regarded. 

The pitching staff is anchored by Felix Hernandez AKA “King Felix.” Hernandez is among the best starting pitchers in the game, a true ace. Southpaw Jason Vargas slots in as an adequate starter pushed to the number two spot in the rotation. After Hernandez and Vargas a lot less is known. Potential ace Michael Pineda was traded to the Yankees in the trade that sent Montero to Seattle. Prior to the Pineda trade the Mariners dealt starters Doug Fister and Erik Bedard at the trade deadline. This leaves 60% of the starting rotation needing to be filled. One spot will go to Japanese free agent sign Hisashi Iwakuma. The four remaining spots will likely come down to Kevin Millwood (free agent sign), Hector Noesi (the second piece in the Pineda deal) and in-house options from last season Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush. Millwood and Noesi look to have the advantage. The starting rotation is a big question mark heading into the season.

The bullpen could go any way. Closer Brandon League was very effective last season taking over the role. The three members of the bullpen projected to return from last season Tom Wilhelmsen, Shawn Kelley and Chance Ruffin, did not get too many opportunities. Wilhelmsen had the most appearances of the three with 25. Over the offseason the Mariners brought in left-handers Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill along with righty Shawn Camp. Kuo battled through an anxiety disorder last season while Sherrill had a solid season for the Braves. If Kuo returns to form the Mariners may have two capable lefties. Camp spent last season with the Toronto Blue Jays and had a 4.21 ERA.

There may be hope for the Seattle Mariners, but it won’t be seen in the standings this season. The organization has a few promising young players to build around for the coming years (***). But for 2012, it looks like the best the Mariners can do is not finish in the basement of the AL West.

(***) With the way the Angels and Rangers are built, Seattle really needs those young players to reach their ceiling to have a chance.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Jesus Montero (C/DH) – trade with New York Yankees
• John Jaso (C) – trade with Tampa Bay Rays
• Carlos Guillen (IF) – free agent (minor league contract)
• Hisashi Iwakuma (RHP) – free agent
• Hector Noesi (RHP) – trade with New York Yankees
• Kevin Millwood (RHP) – free agent (minor league contract)
• Hong-Chih Kuo (LHP) – free agent
• George Sherrill (LHP) – free agent
• Shawn Camp (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

• Michael Pineda (RHP) – trade with New York Yankees
• Jamey Wright (RHP) – signed with Los Angeles Dodgers
• Josh Lueke (RHP) – trade with Tampa Bay Rays
• Adam Kennedy (IF) – signed with Los Angeles Dodgers
• Josh Bard (C) – signed with Los Angeles Dodgers
• Wily Mo Pena (OF) – signed with Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Japan)

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Chone Figgins – 3B

2. Dustin Ackley – 2B

3. Ichiro Suzuki – RF

4. Mike Carp – LF

5. Jesus Montero – DH

6. Justin Smoak – 1B

7. Franklin Gutierrez – CF

8. Miguel Olivo – C

9. Brendan Ryan – SS

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Felix Hernandez – RH

2. Jason Vargas – LH

3. Hisashi Iwakuma – RH

4. Kevin Millwood – RH

5. Hector Noesi – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Brandon League – RH
• Tom Wilhelmsen – RH
• Shawn Kelley – RH
• Chance Ruffin – RH
• Hong Chih Kuo – LH
• George Sherill – LH
• Shawn Camp – RH

Projected Bench:

• John Jaso – IF
• Kyle Seager – IF
• Carlos Guillen – IF
• Casper Wells – OF

Variables:

• Ichiro – He’s 38 and had a rough 2011. It would be quite the downfall if that trend continued
• Chone Figgins – Serious question. Is he still a major leaguer?
• The back-end of the rotation – Playing half of your games at Safeco Field certainly helps, but things may get real dicey in the 3-4-5 spots in the rotation
• Seattle can really help itself out if some of the young players in the starting lineup develop and produce.
• Trades – As Seattle looks to the future, will the organization trade Ichiro (last year of contract) and/or Felix Hernandez (always in the rumor mill)?

Fantasy Implications:

• Must start with “King Felix.” He’s easily the biggest fantasy commodity on the roster. He’s a top-tier SP and worth an early round pick.
• Second basemen Dustin Ackley is interesting as a player to take a chance on. He plays a premium (and historically shallow) position and showed promise last season.
• Ichiro should have numbers more in line with 2010 than 2011 but you never know.
• Jesus Montero will likely be batting in the middle of the lineup and by all accounts should hit real well. Position comes into play here. It’s unlikely he’s available as a catcher in your league (though if he is, that adds tons of value) so that leaves him as a DH option only. That makes him less intriguing depending on how many utility spots your league allows.
• There aren’t that many options offensively. Only Ichiro, Ackley and Montero are good bets to be on rosters. Smoak and outfielders Mike Carp and Franklin Gutierrez may get some late round consideration in deep leagues but are more likely bound for the waiver wire. The names above aren’t all that great but it gets worse. This wasn’t the worst offense in the league for nothing last season.