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The 2011 season was disastrous for the Minnesota Twins. The club finished in dead last in the AL Central and had the worst run differential in all of Major League Baseball. Injuries absolutely obliterated any chance Minnesota had last season. Of the Twins returning position players only third basemen Danny Valencia appeared in more than 117 games. Three of the projected first four batters in the 2012 lineup, Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, played in 70, 82 and 69 games respectively. The pitching staff, while not exactly healthy fared better as Carl Pavano and his mustache made 33 starts. Brian Duensing (28 starts) and Nick Blackburn (26 starts) were able to hold down spots in the rotation. The Twins finished the season 25th in runs scored and 29th in runs against.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

As for 2012, let’s start with Joe Mauer since he is such a big part of what the Minnesota Twins are. It is imperative that he stays healthy and does what he is capable of doing if the Twins plan on going anywhere this season. Mauer missed half of the team’s games but even when he was in the lineup he was not productive. His walk rate dipped and his strikeout rate rose while his on-base percentage dropped 42 points. Here is something that shocked me. In the last two seasons Mauer had 457 plate appearances at home and had exactly one homerun. That’s right. One. If Mauer is healthy I would be shocked if his production did not trend up (*). He is the anchor.

(*) The Twins have Mauer under contract through the 2018 season. Seven more seasons at $23 million per. Good gravy!

Joe Mauer needs to be healthy and productive for Minnesota in 2012 (AP Photo/Andy King)

There are a few new additions to the Twins lineup and a couple of players that, like Mauer, are looking to return to form. Minnesota added Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit (**) in the offseason. All three are likely to be everyday starters and have shown to be at least adequate major leaguers. As with Mauer, Justin Morneau is a player the Twins really need back and healthy. He has never been the same (on the field) since getting a concussion in July of 2010. Last season Morneau appeared in only 69 games and posted a meager .618 OPS. This is the same player that won the AL MVP in 2006 and went to four consecutive All-Star games from 2007-2010. He’s only 30 years old. Reports are out that he is not feeling any concussion-like symptoms. Minnesota has to be crossing its fingers that he will be healthy and produce like the past. Lastly, the Twins will be looking for Denard Span to be healthy and return to form as well.

(**) I really like the Doumit deal (1 year, $3 million). It’s a bargain for a player that can hit as well as Doumit is capable of. Additionally, he can spot start at a few positions including catcher. Health is always a concern with him.

With the possible exception of Francisco Liriano, the Twins starting rotation is not all that glitzy. Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis, and Nick Blackburn are all pitch-to-contact types. Liriano has big stuff but struggled last season and gave up way too many walks. He is really the starter that needs to step up for the club in 2012. Scott Baker is above average and underrated. Brian Duensing, who likely will be working out of the bullpen, gives the Twins a sixth option for the rotation as well. Overall, the starting rotation is nothing to get excited about but could prove passable in the AL Central.

The Twins’ bullpen was poor in 2011 outside of left-hander Glen Perkins. Most bullpens these days feature hard throwing, big effort, strikeout type pitchers. Last season the Twins bullpen was lacking those types of relievers. Of the relievers projected to return to the bullpen only Glen Perkins had a K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) rate over six. That may be why the organization signed Joel Zumaya, who when healthy (***), can really dial it up. Duensing probable move back to the pen could also help but this is not a stellar group.

(***) A huge if.

It may be hard to imagine but Minnesota is only a season removed from back-to-back AL Central titles. In 2011, everything went wrong and the club finished with the second worst record in MLB. You can say it about any team but health is a concern. If key players Mauer and Morneau are healthy, Minnesota may contend for the division. It’s possible. If things start off on the wrong track, it may get as ugly as last season. That would prompt management to look into trading some of the team’s veterans such as Carl Pavano.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

  • Josh Willingham (OF) – free agent
  • Jamey Carroll (MIF) – free agent
  • Ryan Doumit (C/1B/DH) – free agent
  • Jason Marquis (RHP) – free agent
  • Joel Zumaya (RHP) – free agent

Subtractions:

  • Michael Cuddyer (IF/OF) – signed with Colorado Rockies
  • Jason Kubel (OF) – signed with Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Joe Nathan (RHP) – signed with Texas Rangers
  • Kevin Slowey (RHP) – trade with Colorado Rockies
  • Jose Mijares (LHP) – signed with Kansas City Royals

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Denard Span – CF

2. Jamey Carroll – SS

3. Joe Mauer – C

4. Justin Morneau – 1B

5. Josh Willingham – RF

6. Ryan Doumit – DH

7. Danny Valencia – 3B

8. Alexi Casilla – 2B

9. Ben Revere – LF

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Carl Pavano – RH

2. Francisco Liriano – LH

3. Jason Marquis – RH

4. Scott Baker – RH

5. Nick Blackburn – RH

Projected Bullpen:

  • Matt Capps – RH
  • Glen Perkins – LH
  • Joel Zumaya – RH
  • Alex Burnett – RH
  • Brian Duensing – LH
  • Anthony Swarzak – RH
  • Terry Doyle – RH

Projected Bench:

  • Drew Butera – C
  • Luke Hughes – IF
  • Tsuyoshi Nishioka – MIF
  • Trevor Plouffe – OF

Variables:

  • The health and production of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Minnesota’s season hinges on this.
  • The bullpen – bullpens can go almost any way year-to-year
  • New additions – how well will Carroll, Willingham, and Doumit fare with their new team
  • Defense – with the pitchers on this roster, the Twins defense needs to perform

Fantasy Implications:

  • The name that jumps out first is obviously Mauer. In past seasons he was an elite fantasy catcher option and even the first catcher taken some of the time. Coming off last year, however, Mauer probably drops somewhere in the top seven among catchers. His position and his ability to hit for average are the strongest things in his favor. If you want him in your draft you’ll probably have to reach because if you don’t, someone else will.
  • As with Mauer there will likely be someone in your draft who will be a believer in Justin Morneau or Francisco Liriano. Currently, Morneau is ranked as the 35th first basemen according to Yahoo!’s rankings while Liriano is the 76th starting pitcher. Both players are coming off less than productive seasons. Morneau clearly has the more proven track record so it’s a matter of health. Both will be drafted in your league so it’s a matter in how much you believe in either player as a bounce-back candidate.
  • Outside of Morneau, the rest of the Twins projected starting infield is irrelevant unless you are in a deep league.
  • Ryan Doumit is an interesting fantasy player this season. As mentioned above, Doumit’s health is always a concern. Sliding into the DH role while spot starting will improve his chances of staying healthy. If you are looking for a catcher late in your draft, he is worth the gamble. 
  • Of the Twins outfielders, Josh Willingham is the one that can contribute in the most categories. He won’t hit for average, but has power and if the Twins offense is any good he may rack up some RBIs. Denard Span and Ben Revere provide stolen bases. Span, at the top of the lineup, will provide runs as well. Willingham will be drafted in most every league.
  • The player I may target most from this roster is Scott Baker who I feel is quite underrated.