The Houston Astros finished the 2011 season with the worst record in Major League Baseball at 56-106. 2012 may be worse. Houston is clearly in rebuilding mode as shown by the team’s trades of outfielders Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence prior to last season’s trade deadline. I expect the rebuilding to continue in 2012 as the four highest paid players on the team, Carlos Lee ($18.5 million), Brett Myers ($11 million), Wandy Rodriguez ($10 million), and to a lesser extent, Brandon Lyon ($5.5 million) all seem to be trade candidates (*). The only remaining players on the roster making at least $1 million this season are J.A. Happ, Jed Lowrie and Humberto Quintero. Luckily for the organization it does not have long-term commitments holding it back.

(To see an explanation of 2012 MLB team previews and release dates click here)

(*) Lee’s contract is up at the end of the season as is Myers (though the club has a $10 million that won’t be picked up). Rodriguez could help a contender and has a year remaining on his deal after this season. To trade Lyon would require him to be both healthy and effective. Houston would likely have to eat a lot of his remaining deal which ends this season.

Houston’s starting lineup is young and unproven. Of the projected starters, only Lee and catcher Chris Snyder have more than four years of Major League experience. “El Caballo” (Lee) is the only position player with a proven track record. He is 35 and his production is declining. The organization will see if some of the younger players can develop, stick, and exceed expectations.

The strength, if there is one, for the Astros is its starting rotation of Rodriguez, Myers, Bud Norris, Happ, and (potentially) Livan Hernandez with others vying for the fifth spot. Rodriguez and Myers are proven veterans. Bud Norris had an underrated season in 2011. Happ, acquired in the trade for Pence, is still developing.

The bullpen features Lyon, coming off injury, and several unproven pitchers in their mid-twenties. Like the starting lineup, the pen does not feature players with much Major League experience. The relief corps could potentially see a lot of turnover through the course of the season.

Barring a minor miracle the Houston Astros are going to struggle mightily in 2012. If Houston struggles as expected the primary focus will shift toward seeing exactly what they have in their young, inexperienced players. As mentioned before, Houston will likely look to move its higher paid players in exchange for prospects that may help the team in the future. The next couple years are probably a lost cause for Houston so developing prospects is where the most attention should be paid. Things may at least be headed in the right direction with new owner Jim Crane and a new management team led by general manager Jeff Luhnow who comes over from the St. Louis Cardinals. With little committed long-term, Houston also has flexibility moving forward.

For 2012, the roster simply lacks talent.

Offseason Moves:

Additions:

• Jed Lowrie (SS) – trade with Boston Red Sox
• Kyle Weiland (RHP) – trade with Boston Red Sox
• Chris Snyder (C) – free agent
• Jack Cust (OF) – free agent
• Livan Hernandez (RHP) – free agent (minor league contract)

Subtractions:

• Clint Barmes (SS) – signed with Pittsburgh Pirates
• Mark Melancon (RHP) – trade with Boston Red Sox
• Jason Michaels (OF) – signed with Washington Nationals

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Jordan Schafer – CF

2. Jose Altuve – 2B

3. J.D. Martinez – LF

4. Carlos Lee – 1B

5. Brian Bogusevic – RF

6. Jed Lowrie – SS

7. Jimmy Paredes – 3B

8. Chris Snyder – C

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Wandy Rodriguez – LH

2. Brett Myers – RH

3. Bud Norris – RH

4. J.A. Happ – LH

5. Livan Hernandez – RH

Projected Bullpen:

• Brandon Lyon – RH
• Wilton Lopez – RH
• Sergio Escalona – LH
• Fernando Rodriguez – RH
• Wesley Wright – LH
• Henry Sosa – RH
• Lucas Harrell – RH

Projected Bench:

• Humberto Quintero – C
• Brett Wallace – 1B/3B
• Matt Downs – IF
• Jason Bourgeois – IF/OF
• Jack Cust – OF

Variables:

• The unexpected – With so many unproven players (especially in the starting lineup and bullpen) there are a lot of unknowns. There is the possibility of it going either way for those players and the Astros as a team.
• Starting pitching – Houston’s strongest area. Rodriguez, Myers, Norris, and Happ will be relied on out of necessity. It’s not even a good collection of starters but the rotation isn’t inept either.
• Trades – Trading some of the veterans mentioned earlier could further alter the course of Houston’s season.

Fantasy Implications:

• There certainly aren’t any elite fantasy options on this roster. Really, there isn’t even a great argument for above average options. Your best bets are Carlos Lee and Wandy Rodriguez. Bud Norris may help out along with whoever the closer ends up being (Lyon, if healthy). You may get cheap stolen bases out of Jason Bourgeois if he gets consistent playing time. Other than that? Pretty bleak.