The second round of the NFL playoffs is upon us.

The bye factor is in play this weekend which adds some extra spice. How will the home teams play coming off a bye? Will the road teams be able to bring a sense of momentum to this week’s game after a playoff win? It’s the playoffs, the prospect of winning a Super Bowl is enough motivation for a team to play its best, but crazy things happen and sometimes teams (talking about home teams more so here) show up flat for whatever reason. Road teams can build on their first round game too as they start to see the finish line. These sorts of abnormal things happen in this round (which is partly why I feel I am going to be wildly off on at least one of these games).

Quick Notes:

• The home team is favored by more than a touchdown in three of the four games this week. San Francisco being the exception
• Three of the four games this week are rematches from the regular season. New Orleans vs. San Francisco being the exception
• All four road teams went 5-3 on the road during the regular season
• Two home teams (New England & San Francisco) went 7-1 at home during the regular season
• Two home teams (Baltimore & Green Bay) were a perfect 8-0 at home during the regular season

Now to the picks.

New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers – Saturday 1/14 1:30 PM PST (FOX)

This is a classic battle of opposing styles. San Francisco is designed to run the ball on offense allowing the clock to continue to tick down limiting the amount of possessions. The 49ers also have a more than solid defensive group that allowed only 10.9 points per game at home this season. New Orleans on the other hand is designed for a fast paced style of offense with shorter time of possession. New Orleans doesn’t rely on its defense to win games. Rather it needs it to make a few big plays and limit big plays from its opponent.

San Francisco, under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, has a true identity (something that shouldn’t be undervalued). This led them to a 13-3 record during the regular season and the two seed. The Niners average home scoring margin was +16.75 this season. San Francisco’s only home loss was Week 2 in overtime to the Cowboys. Like all home teams in this round San Fran took care of business at home. Considering the Niners recent history (not good), I expect the crowd to be extra invested in the game. The play of QB Alex Smith is key. The much maligned Smith has been solid this season (easily his best) starting all 16 games for only the second time in his seven-year career while only throwing five interceptions. Now we will see how he carries it over in a playoff game. Limiting turnovers (and getting takeaways) is paramount. The Niners have an excellent defense. How effective will it be against the explosive record-setting offense of the Saints?

As I laid out last week, the New Orleans Saints are peaking now. The strong play continued with a 17 point home playoff victory over the Detroit Lions in round one. During the regular season, the Saints showed they were a different team on the road and on different playing surfaces. At home, they averaged scoring 41.1 points per game compared to 27.3 on the road. Looking into it further, they averaged 38 points scored indoors and 25.8 points in their five games played on grass. That essentially makes out to be a 13 point scoring difference for the Saints at home/indoors and on the road/grass. Defensively, the Saints allowed 17.9 points on average at home and 24.5 on the road. Indoors, New Orleans gave up 19.7 points and 24.4 on grass. If a team is going to take down New Orleans you want to get the Saints on the road playing on a grass field. That’s what this week’s game (and if the Saints win likely next week’s as well) presents. New Orleans will likely be slowed down. The question is by how much.

Special teams, a strength for both teams, is one of the big keys to the game. One or two plays would be a huge factor in deciding this one.

I doubt that San Francisco can play New Orleans’ game (high scoring/fast paced), but New Orleans can hang with San Francisco if the game is a grinder because the 49ers would be hard pressed to run away from the Saints.

This is the most intriguing game of this round. Really looking forward to it. 

Pick: Saints 24 49ers 23

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots – Saturday 1/14 5:00 PM PST (CBS)

I smell massive TV ratings (even for a Saturday night). Brady. Tebow. Belichick. Tebow. New England. Tebow. This game has the ingredients (now with more Tebow).

The Patriots have won eight games in a row by an average margin of victory of 15.4 points. New England comes in playing well – though in its last two games was down at halftime. Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez lead a potent passing attack which is second in the league in passing yards per game. This is where you would expect New England to try to win the game – through the air. The Patriots much criticized defense will likely be tested down the field by the Broncos and will be pressured to limit big plays. We know what New England is. Great head coach, great quarterback, mismatches at tight end, and a suspect defense. With an extra week of preparation and rest you’d think that Bill Belichick and company would be ready at home where they’re tough to beat.

You probably didn’t see it on TV this week, but the Broncos won dramatically on the first play of overtime to beat the Steelers and advance to this game (it was one of those “emotional” wins. I question if they’ll be able to match that energy this week). Denver seems to play one of two ways. Really really poor or very close with a chance to win. If they get behind they’re in heaps of trouble especially against a team like New England. If they keep it close or lead, we’re probably headed down to the wire. Tim Tebow was great in last week’s game amassing over 300 yards passing and three total touchdowns. The Patriots pass defense is far worse (ranked second to last) than the Steelers so the opportunities should be there for Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and the rest of the Broncos’ pass offense (though I’m not sure how great Denver’s options are after Thomas). The offense will have to play similarly this week if the Broncos are to beat New England – a team they lost to at home by 18 points a month ago. Denver will try to limit the amount of times New England gets the ball, attempt some deep passes, and keep the Patriots out of the end zone. That is a tall task.

I’m going with the team that is at home, better, and more consistent. I expect the game will be somewhat close in the first half, but the Patriots blow past the Broncos in the second half.

Pick: Broncos 20 Patriots 41

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens – Sunday 1/15 10:00 AM PST (CBS)

The least intriguing of the four games (at least for me). Why? Compared to the other games it lacks star power and doesn’t necessarily feature the most historic franchises. These teams don’t mind playing an ugly game either.

The Ravens in recent history just seem like a team you want to avoid in the playoffs (well, all the time practically). I doubt many players look forward to playing against the likes of Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis and the rest of this intimidating defense. The real question for Baltimore though is on offense. How in sync will it be? Sometimes Joe Flacco looks like he’s about to move up a tier in the quarterback ranks and then other times he looks lost out there. Not sure how much of that is his fault, play calling, etc., but I would have thought this offense would produce more than it has. The Ravens have adequate receiving options and one of the best running backs in the league in Ray Rice. Luckily for the Ravens, this game is at home where the offense performed much better during the regular season averaging 27.4 points per game (19.9 on the road). The defense also played well at home only giving up 14.9 on average. Baltimore will look to its defense as always.

A lot of pressure will be put on the Texans’ defense to limit Baltimore and force them into field goal attempts. I don’t expect Houston to go into Baltimore and be overly successful offensively, especially if the Ravens are able to force them into being one-dimensional. The key for the Texans is to not let this game get away from them, particularly in its early stages. That means they’ll want to rely on Arian Foster and eliminate mistakes such as turnovers. If the Ravens defense is successful at the start it’s like a shark smelling blood in the water. They recognize your weakness and are unrelenting. I’m still trying to figure T.J. Yates out. Houston doesn’t ask him to do a ton. He’s been solid for the most part especially considering he’s a rookie with six starts in the NFL.

These teams are built more similarly than I first thought. Neither quarterback is ultimately relied on to win the game, led by great running backs, and top ranked defenses.

Baltimore, at home (in the playoffs), against a first-year quarterback.

Pick: Texans 17 Ravens 27

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers – Sunday 1/15 1: 30 PM PST (FOX)

Time to see what the Packers have in store for the playoffs. It sort of feels like Green Bay has something to prove here. Earlier, I discussed the Saints peaking now. I wouldn’t say Green Bay is declining, but when a team is this good and has won this many games, when they’re not close to perfect people start to question them. Before losing to Kansas City everyone was talking about their run to a championship this season as almost inevitable. After the loss, some suggested that the Packers weren’t even the favorite anymore. It does seem like they have peaked but I wouldn’t wager a penny on that. If Aaron Rodgers is on his game, which he pretty much always is, it is almost impossible to stop this offense over the course of a full game. And it doesn’t seem to matter what the personnel is either. The real issue is on the defensive side where Green Bay has struggled a good deal. Green Bay’s scoring defense was second best last year, but has fallen all the way to 19th this season. Last season the Packers gave up the sixth fewest yards per game and gave up the most this season. As good as the Packers are I think their defense will have to take at least one giant step towards performing like last season if they are to win it all again.

I continue to believe in the New York Giants as the underrated contender in the playoffs. They have a very good quarterback and a talented defensive line. That can take a team a long way. Add in the play of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Giants have a lot going for them. Their secondary isn’t all that great to begin with and now is banged up. That will hurt them a bit in this game one would think. For the Giants to stay in this game their great defensive line will have to play exceptional. If they cannot pressure Aaron Rodgers the Giants are in deep trouble in this game. On offense, New York will probably try to bring more balance than usual, but ultimately a lot rides on Eli Manning’s ability to find receivers, especially on third down where they’ll need to keep drives going and keep the ball away from the Packers offense.

This has the potential to be a very good game. The margin for error against the Packers is razor-thin. This week Green Bay is at home, off a bye. Tough sledding for the Giants, but I’m predicting they give the Packers a run for their money.

Pick: Giants 31 Packers 34

Enough from me. Who ya got?

P.S. Did I mention Tebow enough? Just trying to keep up with everyone else. Tebow.